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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

Guangmeng Guo. Why the Parkfield earthquake prediction failed[J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2019, (11): 52-54. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.11.009
Citation: Guangmeng Guo. Why the Parkfield earthquake prediction failed[J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2019, (11): 52-54. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.11.009

Why the Parkfield earthquake prediction failed

  • This paper finds that there exist 11-year cycle and multi-11-year cycle in Parkfield seismicity of USA. The 22-year cycle found by USA scientists is just one example among them. Analysis shows that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake can not be predicted with 11-year cycle or 22-year cycle theory, so the prediction of Parkfield earthquake failed. The reason is that a new regulation-Golden Ratio law appeared, namely 11-year×0.618=6.8 years. With this law the 2004 Parkfield earthquake can be predicted accurately. Based on these new findings, it is predicted that the next Parkfield earthquake will occur around 2032.
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