Preliminary exploration of earthquake predictionby homologous precursor waves

In this paper, the main problems of present earthquake prediction were summarized as follows: the deficiency of silver bullet strategy, the doubt of backtracking research, the false of mathematical manipulation and the unsoundness of precursor observation. In order to avoid these problems, the idea of great earthquakes prediction based on homologous precursor waves was put forward, and the occurrence of great earthquake precursor waves was defined. The referred homologous precursor waves mainly consists of 4 types: acoustic emission wave, seismic wave, electromagnetic wave and deformation wave. Taking the Lushan earthquake for example, the analysis was carried out. Key technologies for predicting strong earthquakes based on homologous precursor waves are observation, analysis, research and prediction of the rapid release process of accumulated stress in target areas.