Scientific plans and concepts of associated researches on earthquake forecast in Japan for recent years

Although Japan constitutes only 1% of the total landmass in the world, it experiences around 10% of global seismicity, particularly the catastrophic great earthquakes. To address the issue, Japan initiated earthquake forecast research programs since the year of 1965, which underwent several stages of planning and revision. In recent years, with the rapid progresses of information science, Japan incorporated information science into earthquake research, and launched “Seismic Research Utilizing Information Science” program aimed at fostering innovative studies in the realm of novel earthquake forecast science. Presently, Japan Meteorological Agency maintains the overall viewpoint that “the occurrence time of interplate earthquakes can be predicted to a certain extent, but available researches show that future earthquake cannot be forecasted. The focus lies in forecasting ground intensity of future earthquakes.” The scientific research philosophy regarding earthquake forecast is shifting from the initial notion of “forecasting the occurrence of disasters” toward “forecasting the developmental process of disasters”.