Anomaly trend analysis of satellite thermal infrared and TEC before two strong earthquakes in Turkey on February 6, 2023
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摘要: 2023年2月6日土耳其连续两次7级以上地震是一次显著的地质构造运动，也是一个特别典型的科学实验场景。当前各类观测数据较为丰富，为全球学者验证自己的猜想和进行模型实验提供了绝佳的机会。作者利用自行研究的热红外年线差值振幅增强比法和TEC（Total Electron Content，电离层总电子含量）微观异常事件年线法研究发现，分别于2022年4月底至5月上旬、8月，在震中区域东西两侧曾出现高强度热红外异常；震前约一个月，震中东西两侧及北部区域同步热红外活跃性显著增强，尤其是北部区域其年线差值振幅增强比值在2023年1月31日创新高，是2018年以来最高记录，且为震前4年平均水平的2.5倍。TEC微观异常事件年均值法研究显示，震中及附近区域TEC微观异常事件年线值从2021年开始快速下降，震前均值创历史最低水平，其年均值降至2000年以来高点的25%。热红外及TEC两种异常在时间、空间上存在高度重叠，且地震发生在以上两种异常区域内，说明两种异常与本次地震系列可能存在密切联系。Abstract: The two successive earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater in Turkey on February 06, 2023, were a remarkable tectonic movement and a particularly typical scientific experiment scene, at present, various observational data are abundant, providing a perfect opportunity for scholars around the world to verify their conjectures and models and conduct experiments. By using the thermal infrared annual mean line difference amplitude enhancement ratio method and the annual mean line value method of TEC (Total Electron Content) microscopic anomaly events, which are both created by the writer, we found that there were high intensity thermal infrared anomalies in the east and west sides of the epicenter area in late April to early May and in August 2022, respectively, about one month before the earthquake, the synchronous thermal infrared activity of the east and west sides of the epicenter and the northern region was significantly enhanced, in particular, the annual mean line difference amplitude enhancement ratio of the northern region hit the highest record since 2018 on January 31, 2023, and was 2.5 times the average level of the four years before the earthquake. The annual mean value method of TEC microscopic anomaly events showed that the annual mean value of TEC microscopic anomaly events in the epicentre and its vicinity began to decline rapidly from 2021, and the annual mean value before the earthquake hit the lowest level in history, which was only about a quarter of the previous high since 2000. The two anomalies of thermal infrared and TEC are highly overlapping in time and space, and the earthquake occurred in the above two abnormal regions, indicating that the two anomalies may be closely related to this seismic series.
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Key words:
- Earthquake in Turkey /
- thermal infrared /
- Amplitude enhancement ratio /
- TEC /
- microscopic anomaly events
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图 1 土耳其地震与断层分布图（图片来源：成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室）
Figure 1. Seismic and faultage distribution map of Turkey (Source of the picture: State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology)
图 2 土耳其地震前后热红外异常时空演化图
Figure 2. Map of temporal and spatial evolution of thermal infrared anomalies before and after the Turkey earthquake
图 3 热红外空间显著异常区域时间异常趋势曲线图（紫色线为预警线）
Figure 3. Map of time anomaly trend curve of significant anomaly region in thermal infrared space
图 4 GPS反映的East Anatolian 断层形变、应变场图
Figure 4. Map of deformation and strain field of East Anatolian fault reflected by GPS
图 5 地壳运动速度与异常叠加平面投影图
Figure 5. Map of planar projection of crustal velocities and anomalies superimposed
图 7 各网格点年均时间曲线趋势示意图
Figure 7. Map of the trend diagram of average annual time curve of each grid point
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