Study on the Cause of Short term Rise of Water Level in Bengbu Monitoring Center Well
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摘要: 文章在前篇蚌埠监测中心井水位长时上升的研究基础上,对蚌埠监测中心井2017—2020年水位出现的59次短时间升高进行分析,通过选取不同时段的降雨参数,建立多元回归方程,研究显示:水位59次短时升高与降雨部分参数有一定的影响关系,结合蚌埠周边ML2.0以上震例和13次无降雨事件分析结果认为,蚌埠周边以ML2.0—3.0级地震为主,地壳应力释放稍弱,且对蚌埠地下流体的影响幅度不大。ML3.0级以上地震主要发生在皖西部和郯庐断裂带附近,地震活动性强,对蚌埠地下流体观测数据的变化幅度大,且持续天数更长。由此得出水位短时上升在排除降雨因素影响的同时还与蚌埠地区地壳应力变化有关系,可见蚌埠监测中心井具有一定的预测效能,能够反映蚌埠周边地区地震应力场变化,对于地震前兆观测数据的分析预报研究具有重要的意义。Abstract: Based on the previous study on the long-term rise of water level in Bengbu monitoring center well, The water level of Bengbu monitoring center well was analyzed for 59 short-time rises from 2017 to 2020, By selecting rainfall parameters in different periods, Establish multiple regression equation, Research shows that: 59 short-term water level rises have certain influence on some rainfall parameters, According to the analysis results of more than ML2.0 earthquake cases and 13 non rainfall events around Bengbu, Bengbu is mainly surrounded by ML2.0—3.0 earthquakes, The crustal stress release is slightly weak, and the influence on Bengbu underground fluid is small. Earthquakes above ML3.0 mainly occurred in the west of Anhui Province and near the Tanlu fault zone, with strong seismic activity. The observation data of underground fluid in Bengbu changed greatly and lasted longer. It is concluded that the short-time rise of water level is related to the change of crustal stress in Bengbu area while excluding the influence of rainfall. It can be seen that Bengbu monitoring center well has a certain prediction efficiency, which can reflect the changes of seismic stress field around Bengbu, and is of great significance for the analysis and prediction of earthquake precursor observation data.
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Key words:
- Rainfall /
- Water level /
- Multiple regression /
- Earthquake
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表 1 59次水位短时升高幅度与4个自变量的数值变化
Table 1. 59 short-time rise amplitude of water level and numerical changes of 4 independent variables
序号 水位升高时间段
(年-月-日)水位升高幅度/m 水位升高持续时间/天 升高阶段最高水位/m 上升期间降雨量/mm 最大单日降雨量/mm 1 2017-01-01—2017-01-08 0.222 7 11.237 31.9 22.4 2 2017-01-12—2017-01-13 0.015 1 11.252 / / 3 2017-01-26—2017-01-27 0.041 1 11.235 / / 4 2017-01-28—2017-01-29 0.141 1 11.099 11.6 1.6 5 2017-02-03—2017-02-05 0.11 2 11.029 5.8 0.6 6 2017-02-16—2017-02-17 0.051 1 10.91 1.7 1.7 7 2017-02-19—2017-02-20 0.108 1 10.883 12.5 0.1 8 2017-03-02—2017-03-04 0.091 2 10.957 0.4 0.4 9 2017-04-03—2017-04-05 0.06 2 11.365 2.5 5.3 10 2017-04-14—2017-04-15 0.096 1 11.298 6.9 0.9 11 2017-05-07—2017-05-09 0.114 2 11.398 4.6 3.3 12 2017-06-09—2017-06-11 0.112 2 11.644 19 19 13 2017-06-13—2017-06-24 0.129 11 11.569 11.4 11.4 14 2017-07-09—2017-07-20 0.119 11 11.584 87.8 57.4 15 2017-08-25—2017-08-31 0.145 6 11.63 60 55.4 16 2017-11-04—2017-11-08 0.125 3 10.207 / / 17 2018-01-13—2018-01-17 0.106 4 11.259 5.6 5.6 18 2018-02-13—2018-02-14 0.088 1 11.57 / / 19 2018-02-15—2018-01-17 0.098 2 11.517 / / 20 2018-02-26—2018-02-28 0.09 2 11.521 20.5 12.6 21 2018-03-02—2018-03-05 0.121 3 11.449 70.9 58.8 22 2018-03-07—2018-03-15 0.258 8 11.29 28.2 23 23 2018-03-18—2018-03-27 0.171 9 11.15 32.6 18.5 24 2018-04-07—2018-04-10 0.126 3 11.065 / / 25 2018-05-04—2018-05-07 0.206 3 11.43 173.4 96.6 26 2018-05-11—2018-05-17 0.308 6 11.173 113.5 86.7 27 2018-05-18—2018-05-27 0.245 9 11.052 104.8 77.2 28 2018-06-27—2018-06-29 0.166 2 11.182 211.1 206.9 29 2018-07-03—2018-07-13 0.24 10 11 82.9 54.8 30 2018-08-16—2018-08-18 0.224 2 11.019 174.2 118.3 31 2018-11-07—2018-11-09 0.072 2 12.18 56.9 22.7 32 2018-12-09—2018-12-20 0.244 11 12.106 50.1 5.3 33 2018-12-24—2018-12-26 0.114 2 12.07 15.9 6.1 34 2019-01-02—2019-01-05 0.055 3 12.151 1.7 1.3 35 2019-02-01—2019-02-06 0.309 5 12.181 115.6 5.3 36 2019-02-09—2019-02-16 0.145 7 12.119 35 6.8 37 2019-03-08—2019-03-10 0.034 2 11.995 / / 38 2019-03-16—2019-03-20 0.182 4 11.887 / / 39 2019-04-04—2019-04-07 0.09 3 11.937 / / 40 2019-04-15—2019-04-18 0.126 3 11.976 0.7 0.7 41 2019-04-22—2019-04-30 0.187 8 11.837 35.3 15.4 42 2019-05-07—2019-05-10 0.094 3 11.819 / / 43 2019-06-05—2019-06-10 0.227 5 11.956 126.5 121.7 44 2019-06-13—2019-06-21 0.135 8 11.9 29.4 12.2 45 2019-08-01—2019-08-16 0.318 15 11.82 111 61.1 46 2019-09-01—2019-09-07 0.117 6 11.661 11.1 11 47 2019-12-06—2019-12-10 0.095 4 13.305 / / 48 2020-01-05—2020-01-07 0.136 2 13.697 67.1 32.6 49 2020-01-25—2020-01-31 0.156 6 13.507 13.2 8.4 50 2020-02-09—2020-02-14 0.127 5 13.373 22.4 1.5 51 2020-02-18—2020-02-25 0.167 7 13.324 34.3 3.2 52 2020-02-27—2020-02-28 0.083 1 13.352 16.4 9 53 2020-03-24—2020-03-31 0.21 7 13.54 54.1 17.2 54 2020-04-14—2020-04-17 0.101 3 13.621 / / 55 2020-06-10—2020-06-30 0.426 20 13.803 142.1 23.4 56 2020-08-08—2020-08-24 0.509 16 12.009 70.3 45.6 57 2020-09-13—2020-09-17 0.078 4 11.936 0.7 0.4 58 2020-11-16—2020-11-18 0.158 2 12.764 15.1 9.1 59 2020-12-19—2020-12-23 0.113 8 12.835 / / 表 2 13次无降雨发生水位短时上升事件对应震例
Table 2. 13 earthquake cases corresponding to short-term rise of water level without rainfall
序号 水位升高时间段(无降雨) 对应震例 水位上升出现时间 震中距
/km时间 震级 震中 1 2017-01-12—13 2017-01-13 08:08 2.1 无为 震前24小时 170 2 2017-01-26—27 2017-01-23 16:06 2.3 霍山 震前33小时 190 3 2017-11-04—08 2017-11-09 17:30 2.8 宿州 震前11小时 85 4 2018-02-13—14 2018-02-12 12:52 2.7 濉溪 震后14小时 68 5 2018-02-15—17 2018-02-12 23:29 2.6 濉溪 震后38小时 68 6 2018-04-07—10 2018-04-06 23:55 4.1 无为 震后16小时 170 7 2019-03-08—10 2019-03-18 15:56 3.0 青阳 震前10天 238 8 2019-03-16—20 2019-03-18 15:56 3.0 青阳 震前39小时 238 9 2019-04-04—07 2019-04-06 00:19 2.4 肥东 震前21小时 91 10 2019-05-07—10 2019-05-01 12:2 2.7 来安 震前5天 112 2019-05-01 12:22 2.4 来安 震前5天 112 11 2019-12-06—10 2019-12-09 02:10 2.7 六安 震前40小时 170 12 2020-04-14—17 2020-04-12 05:35 2.2 六安 震后44小时 170 2020-04-13 04:00 2.2 六安 震后21小时 170 13 2020-12-19—23 2020-12-19 14:35 2.3 六安 震前8小时 170 -
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