蚌埠监测中心井水位长时间持续升高成因分析

石小磊; 李良辉; 王俊; 张伟峰; 肖攀; 潘洁; 杜默然

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2096-7780.2021.10.005

蚌埠监测中心井水位长时间持续升高成因分析

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-7780.2021.10.005

1.
蚌埠市地震局地震监测中心，安徽蚌埠 233000
2.
安徽省地震局，合肥 230031

基金项目: 安徽省地震局科研合同制课题（202102）资助。

详细信息

通讯作者:
石小磊（1989-），女，工程师，主要从事地震监测预报工作。E-mail: 536712020@qq.com

中图分类号: P315.7
计量
- 文章访问数: 122
- HTML全文浏览量: 97
- PDF下载量: 17
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-08-12
- 修回日期: 2021-09-24
- 网络出版日期: 2021-11-10

Analysis on the causes of the long-term continuous increase of the water level in the well of Bengbu Monitoring Center

1.
Earthquake Monitoring Center of Bengbu Earthquake Agency，Anhui Bengbu 233000，China
2.
Anhui Earthquake Agency，Hefei 230031，China

摘要

摘要: 本文以蚌埠监测中心井2017—2020年水位10次明显的长时间持续升高为研究对象，选取10次水位升高前后不同时段的降雨量进行多元回归分析，建立多元回归方程。结果显示，2017—2020年水位10次明显的长时间持续升高主要与上升期间降雨量关系显著，与其他降雨参数关系不显著。结合蚌埠周边M_L2.5以上地震目录分析结果认为，水位长时间持续升高的规律与地震频次发生规律相对应，说明降雨和区域应力场变化共同影响了蚌埠监测中心水位的变化。
- 降雨 /
- 多元回归 /
- 地震
Abstract: This paper takes 10 times of obvious long-term continuous rise of water level in Bengbu Monitoring Center well from 2017 to 2020 as the research object. Multiple regression analysis was conducted on influencing factors of rainfall in different periods before and after 10 times of water level rise. Multiple regression equations were established. The results show that: the 10 times of obvious long-term sustained rise of water level from 2017 to 2020 are mainly related to the influence of rainfall during the rise. It has no significant relationship with other rainfall parameters. Combined with the analysis results of earthquake catalogs above M_L2.5 in Bengbu area, the law of water level rising continuously for a long time corresponds to the law of earthquake frequency, which shows that rainfall and regional stress field change jointly affect the water level change of Bengbu Monitoring Center.
- rainfall /
- multiple regression /
- earthquake

HTML全文

图 1 蚌埠监测中心井水位与降雨对比图（2017—2020年）

Figure 1. Comparison of well water level with rainfall in Bengbu Monitoring Center （2017—2020）

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 水位升高幅度和5个自变量之间的影响关系

Figure 2. The influential relationship between the height of water level rise and five independent variables

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2017—2020年蚌埠周边发生的M_L≥2.5地震的M-t图和发震时间间隔图

Figure 3. M-t diagram and time interval diagram of earthquakes with M_L≥2.5 around Bengbu between 2017—2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 蚌埠及周边地区M_L2.5以上地震震中分布图

Figure 4. Epicenter distribution map above M_L2.5 in Bengbu and its surrounding areas

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 10次水位升高幅度与降雨参数的数值变化

Table 1. The amplitude of 10 water level rises and the numerical variation of rainfall parameters

序号	水位升高时间段（年-月-日）	水位升高幅度/m	水位升高持续时间/d	升高阶段最高水位/m	上升期间降雨量/mm	最大单日降雨量/mm	升高前期降雨量/mm
1	2017-08-22—2017-11-07	1.640	55	11.830	335.8	97.4	215.4
2	2018-03-05—2018-04-06	0.512	8	11.582	116.3	27.8	93.7
3	2018-05-05—2018-06-04	0.610	25	11.594	220.6	96.6	51.9
4	2018-08-14—2018-11-13	1.240	6	12.260	228.1	118	77.4
5	2019-01-25—2019-03-07	0.614	38	12.561	60.3	9.9	9.5
6	2019-04-19—2019-05-19	0.270	9	11.086	96.0	15.4	26.5
7	2019-06-04—2019-07-07	0.308	18	11.197	111.12	22.0	12.0
8	2019-07-29—2019-09-10	0.552	39	12.213	134.0	61.2	4.1
9	2020-01-03—2020-02-29	0.514	57	12.837	129.1	32.6	14.6
10	2020-06-07—2020-09-09	2.300	76	13.230	409.6	58.6	5.5

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