Application of comprehensive analysis method to the analysis of ionospheric TEC anomalies before and after moderate earthquakes
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摘要: 近年来，作者们经过长期的分析研究后发现，采用迭代法分析电离层数据时获取的电离层TEC异常与中强地震发生具有较好的空间对应关系，并根据总结的异常特征在地震中长期监测预报方面取得了一定的进展。本文在迭代法分析预报确定异常区域的基础上，采用滑动四分位法对预测区域发生的中强地震前后短时间序列内的电离层TEC数据进行分析，剔除干扰因素后找到较为明显的电离层TEC变化异常。综合利用两种分析方法判断中强地震前后电离层TEC异常，从而为地震前兆研究提供一个新的思路。Abstract: In recent years, after long-term analysis and research, the authors found that the ionospheric TEC anomaly obtained using the iterative method to analyze the ionospheric data has a good spatial correspondence with the occurrence of medium and strong earthquakes. Some progress has been made in the medium and long term earthquake monitoring and prediction according to the summarized anomaly characteristics. In this paper, the iterative method is used to analyze and predict anomalous regions. The sliding interquartile method is used to analyze the ionospheric TEC data in the short time series before and after moderate earthquakes in the predicted region. After removing the interference factors, obvious anomalies of ionospheric TEC variation are found. The two methods are used to judge the TEC anomalies in the ionosphere before and after moderate earthquakes, so as to provide a new idea for the study of earthquake precursors.
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Key words:
- iteration method /
- sliding interquartile method /
- moderate earthquake /
- the ionosphere /
- abnormal TEC
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图 1 北流地震震中及格网点示意图
Figure 1. Schematic diagram of epicentral and grid points of Beiliu earthquake
图 2 汶川地震TEC活跃性指数变化图（a）与TEC活跃指数时段平面图（2008年5月） （b）
Figure 2. Changes of TEC activity index in Wenchuan earthquake （a） and plan diagram of TEC activity index period （May 2008） （b）
图 3 北流地震TEC活跃性指数变化图（a）与TEC活跃指数时段平面图（2019年7月） （b）
Figure 3. Variation chart of TEC activity index of Beiliu earthquake （a） and time interval plan of TEC activity index （July 2019） （b）
图 4 北流地震震中周围格网点TEC时间序列（黑色柱线为发震时间）
Figure 4. TEC time series of grid points around the epicenter of the Beiliu earthquake （the black column is the time of seismogenesis）
图 5 9月27日—10月15日北流地震前后太阳活动和地磁变化情况
Figure 5. Changes of solar activity and geomagnetism before and after the Beiliu earthquake from September 27 to October 15
图 6 10月5日数据异常高值时间TEC空间分布图（黄色标记为震中位置）
Figure 6. Spatial distribution of TEC with abnormally high data on October 5 （epicenter location is marked in yellow）
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