Analysis of variation characteristics of radon observation data in Bengbu station
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摘要: 对蚌埠地震台2020年4月15日以来出现的水氡数据转折下降—恢复上升的变化趋势进行分析，文章通过环境调查、气象因素对比、抽水取样化验后和研究得出：本次水氡变化与气温水温呈正相关关系，相关性显著，气温引起水温的变化，进而引起气体的溶解度和脱气率改变，从而引起水氡测值的变化。结合往年震例分析结果认为，气温可能不是引起水氡测值下降的单一因素，应该是环境干扰与地震前兆信息共同作用的结果，而水氡与气温之间的相关系数降低，与周边发生地震有一定的关联性。Abstract: This paper analyzes the trend of water radon data from Bengbu seismic station since April 15, 2020. It is found that radon in Bengbu station is fluctuating. Through environmental investigation, comparison of meteorological factors and pumping sampling test, it is concluded that the change of radon in water has a positive and significant correlation with air temperature and water temperature. The air temperature changes the water temperature, and then changes the solubility and degassing rate of gas, thus causing the change of radon measurement value in water. According to the analysis results of previous earthquake cases, air temperature may not be the only factor causing the drop in radon readings. It should be the result of the interaction of environmental disturbance and earthquake precursory information. It is concluded that the reduction of correlation coefficient between water radon and temperature is related to the surrounding earthquakes.
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Key words:
- radon in water /
- earthquake /
- temperature
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图 1 2012年以来的同期水氡数据日均值变化（2012—2020年）
Figure 1. Daily mean change of radon data in the same period since 2012（2012—2020）
图 2 蚌埠水氡与气温呈正相关关系（2016—2020年）
Figure 2. Comparative analysis of radon in water and temperature at Bengbu seismic station（2016—2020）
图 3 2016—2020年蚌埠水氡与气温之间的对比分析
Figure 3. Comparative analysis between radon and air temperature in Bengbu from 2016 to 2020
图 4 2016—2020蚌埠及周边地区地震M-t图
Figure 4. M-t seismic map of Bengbu and its surrounding areas from 2016 to 2020
表 1 气温影响水氡数值下降幅度变化情况
Table 1. Influence of temperature on the decline of radon in water
类别 2016年 2017年 2018年 2019年 2020年 气温下降幅度 / 10.045 13.021 10.137 10.039 水氡下降幅度 / 2.8% 2.9% 4.6% 2.6% 下降持续时间 / 20天 15天 26天 30天+ 
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表 2 2016—2020年蚌埠周边发生ML≥3.5地震
Table 2. Earthquakes with ML≥3.5 occurred around Bengbu from 2016 to 2020
发震时间 震中位置 震级（ML） 震源深度/km 发震地点 震中距/km 年-月-日 时:分:秒 纬度/°N 经度/°E 2016-04-15 17:55:42 31.31 117.74 3.6 6 安徽无为 ＜180 2017-04-29 00:53:24 31.69 115.80 3.7 6 安徽金寨 ＜180 2018-04-06 23:55:07 31.21 117.75 3.6 7 安徽无为 ＜180 2019-11-01 15:33:02 32.47 117.59 3.5 8 安徽定远 ＜50
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