中国大陆<i>M</i><sub>S</sub>≥7.0地震与太阳黑子活动之间关系的统计检验

陈学忠; 李艳娥

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2096-7780.2021.03.002

中国大陆M_S≥7.0地震与太阳黑子活动之间关系的统计检验

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-7780.2021.03.002

陈学忠^,,
李艳娥

中国地震局地球物理研究所，北京 100081

基金项目: 中国地震局地球物理研究所基本科研业务专项（DQJB19B31）资助

详细信息

通讯作者:
陈学忠（1963-），男，研究员，主要从事地震学与地震预测研究，E-mail：cxz8675@163.com

中图分类号: P315
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-10-14
- 修回日期: 2020-11-24
- 刊出日期: 2021-03-25

Statistical test of the relationship between sunspot number and the occurrence of the M_S≥7.0 earthquakes occurring in mainland China

Xuezhong Chen^,,
Yan’e Li

Institute of Geophysics，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100081，China

摘要

摘要: 利用1900—2017年间中国大陆地区64次M_S≥7.0地震资料，根据太阳黑子11年周期变化计算了它们的相位角，分析了它们的相位角分布，利用统计检验方法对它们与太阳黑子11年周期变化之间的关系进行了检验。结果是：中国大陆地区M_S≥7.0地震中约66%发生在太阳黑子11年周期变化的谷值点前2年—后3年的时段内，在α=0.001显著性水平下通过显著性检验。2019年底太阳黑子11年周期变化将达谷值点，因此，2018—2022年为中国大陆地区M_S7.0地震易发时段。
- 中国大陆 /
- M_S≥7.0地震 /
- 太阳黑子 /
- 11年周期变化 /
- 统计检验
Abstract: For magnitude M_S≥7.0 earthquakes that occurred in mainland China from 1900 to 2017, we investigated the correlation between the 11-year-cycle variation of sunspot number and the occurrence of these earthquakes via the phase angle with a statistical test. The obtained results show that approximately 66 percent of them often occur within the period from two years before the valley point to three years after. This result is significant at the significance level （α=0.001）. At the end of 2019, the sunspot number dropped to the valley point. Therefore, earthquakes of M_S7.0 could be more prone to occur in mainland China from 2018 to 2022.
- mainland China /
- M_S≥7.0 earthquake /
- sunspot number /
- the 11-year-cylce variation /
- statistical test

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图 1 太阳黑子数随时间的变化

（a）原始月均值数据；（b）11年周期变化（进行低通滤波处理，截止周期为5年）

Figure 1. Sunspot number versus time

（a）the raw monthly data;（b）the 11-year-cycle variations（low-pass filtering was performed with the cut-off period of 5 years）

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 中国大陆地区1900—2017年发生的M_S≥7.0地震震中分布

Figure 2. Epicenters of earthquakes（M_S≥7.0）that occurred in mainland China from 1900 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 中国大陆地区M_S≥7.0地震发生时的相位角分布

粗实线表示太阳黑子11年周期变化

Figure 3. Histogram showing the phase distribution of earthquakes（M_S≥7.0）occurring in mainland China

Thick solid curve denotes the 11-year-cycle variation of sunspot

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 不同显著性水平下统计检验量的临界值

Table 1. The critical values of statistical test quantity at different significance levels

显著性水平α值	Z_α	显著性水平α值	Z_α
0.001	3.29	0.01	2.575
0.002	3.09	0.02	2.336
0.005	2.81	0.05	1.96

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 中国大陆地区M_S≥7.0地震发生时的相位角

Table 2. The phase angles for earthquakes（M_S≥7.0）that occurred in mainland China

序号	年-月-日	M_S	相位角/°	序号	年-月-日	M_S	相位角/°
1	1902-08-22	8.3	−139.89	34	1954-02-11	7.3	−169.81
2	1904-08-30	7.0	−68.11	35	1954-07-31	7.0	−150.57
3	1906-12-23	8.0	11.69	36	1955-04-14	7.5	−121.50
4	1908-08-20	7.0	59.22	37	1955-04-15	7.0	−121.50
5	1913-12-21	7.0	−140.87	38	1963-04-19	7.0	148.66
6	1914-08-05	7.5	−119.02	39	1966-03-22	7.2	−109.66
7	1915-12-03	7.0	−71.41	40	1969-07-18	7.4	10.80
8	1916-08-28	7.5	−45.00	41	1970-01-05	7.8	23.04
9	1918-02-13	7.3	6.67	42	1973-02-06	7.6	104.40
10	1920-12-16	8.5	105.16	43	1973-07-14	7.3	115.46
11	1923-03-24	7.3	−175.86	44	1974-05-11	7.1	137.52
12	1924-07-03	7.3	−127.24	45	1974-08-11	7.3	144.00
13	1924-07-12	7.2	−126.21	46	1975-02-04	7.3	156.33
14	1925-03-16	7.0	−100.92	47	1976-05-29	7.3	−164.02
15	1927-05-23	8.0	−18.62	47	1976-05-29	7.4	−164.02
16	1931-08-11	8.0	121.19	48	1976-07-28	7.8	−157.63
17	1932-12-25	7.6	165.81	49	1976-08-16	7.2	−155.50
18	1933-08-25	7.5	−170.64	50	1976-08-23	7.2	−154.44
19	1934-12-15	7.0	−121.40	51	1985-08-23	7.4	165.60
20	1937-01-07	7.5	−42.66	52	1988-11-06	7.6	−67.78
21	1937-08-01	7.0	−20.93	52	1988-11-06	7.2	−67.78
22	1941-05-16	7.0	101.63	53	1990-04-26	7.0	−7.78
23	1941-12-26	7.0	121.44	54	1995-07-12	7.3	161.47
24	1944-03-10	7.2	−166.67	55	1996-02-03	7.0	180.00
25	1944-09-28	7.0	−144.22	56	1996-11-19	7.1	−151.63
26	1947-03-17	7.7	−43.60	57	1997-11-08	7.5	−117.39
27	1947-07-29	7.7	−28.89	58	2001-11-14	8.1	17.67
28	1948-05-25	7.3	3.53	59	2008-03-21	7.3	169.52
29	1949-02-24	7.2	28.24	60	2008-05-12	8.0	172.80
30	1950-02-03	7.0	58.24	61	2010-04-14	7.1	−121.65
31	1950-08-15	8.6	75.37	62	2013-04-20	7.0	−12.79
32	1951-11-18	8.0	115.59	63	2014-02-12	7.3	−16.74
33	1952-08-18	7.5	140.29	64	2017-08-08	7.0	−141.52

下载: 导出CSV

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