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陈学忠, 李艳娥. 中国大陆MS≥7.0地震与太阳黑子活动之间关系的统计检验[J]. 地震科学进展 , 2021, (3): 106-111. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-7780.2021.03.002
引用本文: 陈学忠, 李艳娥. 中国大陆MS≥7.0地震与太阳黑子活动之间关系的统计检验[J]. 地震科学进展 , 2021, (3): 106-111. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-7780.2021.03.002
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Xuezhong Chen, Yan’e Li. Statistical test of the relationship between sunspot number and the occurrence of the MS≥7.0 earthquakes occurring in mainland China[J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2021, (3): 106-111. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-7780.2021.03.002
Citation: Xuezhong Chen, Yan’e Li. Statistical test of the relationship between sunspot number and the occurrence of the MS≥7.0 earthquakes occurring in mainland China[J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2021, (3): 106-111. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-7780.2021.03.002
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中国大陆MS≥7.0地震与太阳黑子活动之间关系的统计检验

Statistical test of the relationship between sunspot number and the occurrence of the MS≥7.0 earthquakes occurring in mainland China

    摘要
  • 摘要: 利用1900—2017年间中国大陆地区64次MS≥7.0地震资料，根据太阳黑子11年周期变化计算了它们的相位角，分析了它们的相位角分布，利用统计检验方法对它们与太阳黑子11年周期变化之间的关系进行了检验。结果是：中国大陆地区MS≥7.0地震中约66%发生在太阳黑子11年周期变化的谷值点前2年—后3年的时段内，在α=0.001显著性水平下通过显著性检验。2019年底太阳黑子11年周期变化将达谷值点，因此，2018—2022年为中国大陆地区MS7.0地震易发时段。

     

    Abstract: For magnitude MS≥7.0 earthquakes that occurred in mainland China from 1900 to 2017, we investigated the correlation between the 11-year-cycle variation of sunspot number and the occurrence of these earthquakes via the phase angle with a statistical test. The obtained results show that approximately 66 percent of them often occur within the period from two years before the valley point to three years after. This result is significant at the significance level （α=0.001）. At the end of 2019, the sunspot number dropped to the valley point. Therefore, earthquakes of MS7.0 could be more prone to occur in mainland China from 2018 to 2022.

     

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