GPS观测得到的大地震前兆地壳形变震例

顾国华; 王武星

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2096-7780.2020.10.004

GPS观测得到的大地震前兆地壳形变震例

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2096-7780.2020.10.004

顾国华^,,
王武星

中国地震局地震预测研究所，北京 100036

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金面上项目（41274098）和中国地震局老专家科研基金课题联合资助。

详细信息

通讯作者:
顾国华（1944-），男，教授，主要从事GPS数据处理、地壳运动和地震预测研究。E-mail：ggh@seis.ac.cn

中图分类号: P315.72⁺5
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-04-13
- 修回日期: 2020-08-30
- 网络出版日期: 2020-11-09
- 刊出日期: 2020-11-09

Case studies on GPS observations and crustal deformation precursors to strong earthquakes

Guohua Gu^,,
Wuxing Wang

Institute of Earthquake Forecasting，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100036，China

摘要

摘要: 综合介绍2008年汶川大地震以来，GPS观测得到的国内外10多次6—9级，不同构造、不同类型的大地震前兆地壳形变震例：2008年汶川8级大地震、2011年东日本9级巨震、2013年芦山7级，直至2020年6月墨西哥7.4级地震和7月美国阿拉斯加州以南海域7.8级地震等。利用GPS连续观测站区域参考框架水平位移时间序列和水平位移场，特别是水平位移向量时间序列的研究证明，同震水平位移是研究地震前兆形变存在的关键；利用垂直位移和水平位移向量时间序列、同震垂直位移及同震水平位移向量的分解，揭示地震弹性回跳真实方式；提出了符合GPS观测和岩石破裂试验结果的地震压-剪弹性回跳模型；根据已有震例，提出预报不同震级地震的可能性和监测临震前兆形变的GNSS站布设设想。
- GPS /
- 地震预测 /
- 地壳形变 /
- 同震位移 /
- 弹性回跳模型
Abstract: Studies on cases of more than 10 strong earthquakes of M6.0 to M9.0 since the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake around the world with GPS observations and crustal deformation precursors are reviewed. These earthquakes occurred in regions of different tectonic movements and of different types. They are the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake in 2011 in Japan, the M7.0 Lushan earthquake in 2013 and so on until the recent earthquake of M7.4 in Mexico in Jun., 2020 and the southern Alaska offshore earthquake of M7.8 in Jul., 2020. Based on the time series of horizontal displacement components and horizontal displacement field, particularly the time series of horizontal displacement vectors, in the regional reference frames, studies have shown that the coseismic displacements are the keys to the confirmation of the existence of crustal deformations precursory to earthquakes. The time series of vertical displacements and horizontal displacement vectors, the coseismic vertical displacements and decomposition of the coseismic horizontal displacement vectors have revealed the real pattern of elastic rebound. A model of rebound or elastic rebound of (preseismic) compression-(coseismic) shear strain is proposed in agreement with results of rock failure tests and the GPS observations. Based on the studies of the earthquake cases, a layout of stations of continuous GNSS observations of monitoring precursory crustal deformations for possible predictions of earthquakes of different magnitudes is proposed.
- global positioning system /
- earthquake prediction /
- crustal deformation /
- coseismic displacement /
- elastic rebound model

HTML全文

图 1 2011年3月11日（GPS周1626，周5）东日本9.0级大地震GPS连续观测站TSKB（左上图，距震中314 km）、2015年4月25日（GPS周1841，周6）尼泊尔8.1级大地震CHLM站（右上图，距震中60 km）、2016年11月22日（GPS周1924，周2）日本本州东岸近海7.2级强余震J203站（左下图，距震中37 km）和2018年9月6日（GPS周2017，周4）日本北海道6.9级大地震J132站（右下图，距震中14 km）震前、同震和震后水平位移向量和N（南北分量）E（东西分量）U（垂直分量）位移分量时间序列，单位为mm。图中的箭头为同震水平位移。GPS周（GPS-Week）便于用各图右侧的色码表示日期，左下图时间为1998年11月，右下图为2004年4月，上图时间均为2018年9月。图中GPS观测的地震波为示意图。图中的数据取至2019年初

Figure 1. Time series of the horizontal displacement vectors and N（north）E（east）U（up）displacement components in mm before and after the Tohoku earthquake of M9.0 on Mar. 11，2011（Friday of GPS-Week 1626）in Japan at the continuous GPS observation station of TSKB（314 km away from the epicenter），before and after the earthquake of M8.1 on Apr. 25，2015（Saturday of GPS-Week 1841）in Nepal at the station of CHLM（60 km away from the epicenter），before and after the Honshu offshore earthquake of M7.2 on Nov. 22，2016（Tuesday of GPS-Week 1924）in Japan at the station of J203（37 km away from the epicenter）and before and after the Hokaido earthquake of M6.9 on Sept. 6，2018（Thursday of GPS-Week 2017）in Japan at the station of J132（14 km away from the epicenter） . The arrows are the coseismic horizontal displacements. The numbers of GPS-Week are used to show the dates with color code. On the right side of the figure the color code is shown with the marked start dates of Nov. 1998 or Apr. 2004 and the marked end date of Sep. 2018. The data up to early 2019 are used in the figure

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图 2 2020年6月23日（GPS周2111，周2）墨西哥7.4级大地震GPS连续观测站OXUM（上图，距7.4级地震震中96 km，距2017年8.2级地震震中96 km）、2020年7月23日（GPS周2115，周3）美国阿拉斯加州以南海域7.8级大地震GPS连续观测站AC12站（下图，距震中74 km）震前、同震和震后N（南北分量）E（东西分量）U（垂直分量）位移分量和水平位移向量时间序列，单位为mm。图中的箭头为同震水平位移。图右侧为用GPS周（GPS-Week）表示日期的色码

Figure 2. Time series of N（north）E（east）U（up）displacement components and the horizontal displacement vectors in mm before and after the earthquake of M7.4 on Jun. 22，2020（Tuesday of GPS-Week 2111）in Mexico at the continuous GPS observation station of OXUM（96 km away from the epicenter and 287 km away from the epicenter of the M8.2 earthquake in 2017），and before and after the southern Alaska offshore earthquake of M7.8 in Jul. 2020（Wednesday of GPS-Week 2115）at the continuous GPS observation station of AC12（74 km away from the epicenter）the arrows are the coseismic horizontal displacements. The numbers of GPS-Week are used to show the dates with color code

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