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前震和余震的实时识别

LauraGulia StefanWiemer 石富强

LauraGulia, StefanWiemer, 石富强. 前震和余震的实时识别[J]. 地震科学进展, 2019, (12): 4-13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.12.002
引用本文: LauraGulia, StefanWiemer, 石富强. 前震和余震的实时识别[J]. 地震科学进展, 2019, (12): 4-13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.12.002
Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks[J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2019, (12): 4-13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.12.002
Citation: Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks[J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2019, (12): 4-13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.12.002

前震和余震的实时识别

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.12.002
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    Laura Gulia,e-mail:lgulia@ethz.ch

    石富强,e-mail:shifuqiang121@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P315.75

Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks

  • 摘要: 一次大地震发生后,公众和决策者首先便会提出一个重要的问题:这是一个主震还是一个即将来临的更大地震的前震。到目前为止,科学家们只能通过对过去历史地震序列的统计给出经验性的结论,通常认为,余震序列会随着时间的推移而逐渐减小,未来发生更大地震的可能性只有百分之几。本文中,我们分析了意大利阿马特里奇-诺尔恰(Amatrice–Norcia)地震和日本熊本(Kumamoto)地震的序列余震平均大小分布,认为在一些情况下,区分一个序列是衰减的余震序列还是正在发展的即将发生更大地震的序列,是有可能的。我们同时提出了一个简单的“交通灯”分级准则来实时评估其对序列后续更大地震的敏感程度,并对58次地震进行了测试,结果显示准确率可达95%。

     

  • 图  1  阿马特里奇-诺尔恰序列b值的时空分析

    (a) 、 (b)分别为阿马特里奇和诺尔恰地震震源区b值的时间序列。蓝色虚线表示背景b值,灰色垂直虚线表示阿马特里奇MW6.2和诺尔恰MW6.6之间的结果。灰色阴影区域表示结果的不确定度。 (c) 、 (d)为3个不同时段内两个源区的震级-频率关系(不确定性来自Shi和Bolt的结果[29])。(e)、 (f)分别为不同阶段地震活动分布图和前震之前的b值。 (g) 、 (h)分别为两次地震期间和后续主震之后的b值相对于背景变化

    图  2  熊本序列b值的时空分析

    (a) 、 (b)分别为MW6.5和MW7.3地震震源区b值的时间序列。蓝色虚线表示背景b值,灰色垂直虚线表示MW6.5和MW7.3之间的结果。灰色阴影区域表示结果的不确定度。 (c) 、 (d)为3个不同时段内两个源区的震级-频率关系(不确定性来自Shi和Bolt的结果[29])。 (e) 、 (f)分别为不同阶段地震活动分布图和前震之前的b值。 (g) 、 (h)分别为两次地震期间和后续主震之后两周的b值相对于背景变化

    图  3  2011年日本9级地震序列的频率-震级分布

    (a) MW7.3地震破裂面12 km范围内3个不同阶段内的频率-震级分布(不确定性来自Shi和Bolt的结果[29]);(b) 包含有MW9.0地震50%破裂面范围内3个阶段内的频度-震级分布

    图  4  前震识别交通灯系统

    频率震级分布图(a)和b值时间序列(c)在FTLS报警系统的信号示意图。绿色表示正常余震序列,b值增加约20%,后期不会发生更大地震;黄色表示余震序列中b值保持不变或难以确定;红色表示b值显著降低,需要考虑必要的减灾措施; (b)为叠加31个序列给出的参考b值相对背景值的变化水平。黑色垂直虚线表示主震

    图  5  前震交通灯系统的性能分析

    包含加利福尼亚、日本、阿拉斯加和意大利等共27个序列余震b值与背景的差异。所有事件均按FTLS分类准则进行颜色编码。红色方块为2016年意大利阿马特里奇地震和日本熊本 MW6.5地震震源区b值变化(前震之后,主震之前) ;绿色方块表示意大利诺尔恰地震和日本熊本 MW7.3之后的b值变化。所有结果都列在表1中。绿色五角星表示Tormann等[34]给出的2011年日本MW9.0地震震后b值变化,红色五角星表示MW9.0地震前MW7.3后的b值变化

    表  1  图5中显示的b值变化

    地震目录来源时间震级(MS)b值变化(%)FTLS信号
    CoalingaANSS1983-05-026.7125绿
    Morgan HillANSS1984-04-246.2 83
    Round ValleyANSS1984-11-236.1113绿
    Chalfant ValleyANSS1986-07-216.4164绿
    Loma PrietaANSS1989-10-187.0173绿
    Joshua TreeANSS1992-04-236.1115绿
    LandersANSS1992-06-287.3124绿
    Eureka ValleyANSS1993-05-176.1 92
    NorthridgeANSS1994-01-176.7107
    Hector MineANSS1999-10-167.1103
    San SimeonANSS2003-12-226.5 99
    ParkfieldANSS2004-09-286.0136绿
    El Mayor CucapahANSS2010-04-047.2124绿
    TottoriJMA2000-10-067.3 96
    RyukyuJMA2001-12-187.3191绿
    ChūetsuJMA2004-10-236.8126绿
    Southern RomoiJMA2004-12-146.1112绿
    FukuokaJMA2005-03-207.0103
    Chūetsu OffshoreJMA2007-07-166.8128绿
    IwateJMA2006-06-137.2104
    Awaji IslandJMA2013-04-126.3150绿
    NaganoJMA2014-11-226.7105
    KumamotoJMA2016-04-146.5 88
    KumamotoJMA2016-04-157.3138绿
    FukushimaJMA2016-11-217.4178绿
    L’AquilaGasperini等[27]2009-04-066.3139绿
    AmatriceGasperini等[27]2016-08-246.2 83
    NorciaGasperini等[27]2016-10-306.5116绿
    DenaliAEIC2002-11-037.6145绿
    TohokuJMA2011-03-097.3 73
    TohokuJMA2011-03-119.0140绿
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  • 收稿日期:  2019-10-18
  • 修回日期:  2019-11-01
  • 刊出日期:  2019-12-01

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