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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

郭广猛. 对美国帕克菲尔德地震预测失败的再分析[J]. 地震科学进展, 2019, (11): 52-54. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.11.009
引用本文: 郭广猛. 对美国帕克菲尔德地震预测失败的再分析[J]. 地震科学进展, 2019, (11): 52-54. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.11.009
Guangmeng Guo. Why the Parkfield earthquake prediction failed[J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2019, (11): 52-54. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.11.009
Citation: Guangmeng Guo. Why the Parkfield earthquake prediction failed[J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2019, (11): 52-54. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.11.009

对美国帕克菲尔德地震预测失败的再分析

Why the Parkfield earthquake prediction failed

  • 摘要: 通过对帕克菲尔德历史地震数据的分析,发现该地存在有11年及11年的倍数周期,美国学者发现的22年周期只是其中一个特例。分析认为,无论是使用11年周期还是22年周期,均无法准确预测出2004年帕克菲尔德地震,因此美国学者的预测未能成功。原因在于出现了一个新的黄金分割规律,即11年×0.618=6.8年,使用该规律可以准确预测出2004年地震。依据以上发现的3个规律,尝试预测下一次帕克菲尔德地震可能发生在2032年附近,建议综合使用当地观测数据分析以缩小误差。

     

    Abstract: This paper finds that there exist 11-year cycle and multi-11-year cycle in Parkfield seismicity of USA. The 22-year cycle found by USA scientists is just one example among them. Analysis shows that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake can not be predicted with 11-year cycle or 22-year cycle theory, so the prediction of Parkfield earthquake failed. The reason is that a new regulation-Golden Ratio law appeared, namely 11-year×0.618=6.8 years. With this law the 2004 Parkfield earthquake can be predicted accurately. Based on these new findings, it is predicted that the next Parkfield earthquake will occur around 2032.

     

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