Study on observation difficulties and countermeasures of meta-instability stage
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摘要: 亚失稳态的研究取得一定的进展，认为加速协同化是区域整体进入准动态亚失稳阶段的标志，也是必震标志。于是，实现对孕震体亚失稳态的有效观测与识别则成为关键问题。可通过“同源前兆波”获取孕震体信息，判别是否进入亚失稳态。地震短临预测无疑是以地震预测理论、地震观测台网布阵对策以及观测仪器为基础。分析其观测难点大致可归结为5个方面：无震滑动是地震预测中的一大难点，理论模式、实验结论与观测结果很难相符，岩石蠕变破裂全过程存在地区差异，深部解耦受制约以及当前观测体系的局限等。探求了以“同源前兆波”作载体克服难点的若干对策。就当前观测台网布阵对策以及观测仪器研制提出了改进措施。Abstract: Some progress have been made in the study of meta-instability. It is considered that accelerated synergy is a sign that the region as a whole enters the quasi-dynamic meta-instability stage, and is also a sign of inevitable earthquakes. Therefore, the effective observation and identification of seismogenic meta-instability has become a key issue. We can get the information of the seismogenic body through the " homologous precursor wave” to identify whether it is entering the meta-instability state. Short-term and impending earthquake prediction is undoubtedly based on the theory of earthquake prediction, the arrangement of seismic observation network and observation instruments. The difficulties of observation can be roughly summed up as follows: aseismic sliding is a major difficulty in earthquake prediction, the theoretical model, experimental results and observation results are difficult to match, there are regional differences in the whole process of rock creep rupture, deep decoupling constraints and the limitations of the current observation system exist. We have explored some countermeasures to overcome difficulties by using " homologous precursor wave” as a carrier. The improvement measures are put forward for the current observation network deployment strategy and observation instrument development.
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