美国地震预警系统ShakeAlert测试与评估

王红蕾; MooneyWalter; 高景春; 孟令媛

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.05.005

美国地震预警系统ShakeAlert测试与评估

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.05.005

1.
河北省地震局，石家庄 050021
2.
美国地质调查局，Menlo Park 94025
3.
中国地震台网中心，北京 100045

详细信息

通讯作者:
王红蕾，e-mail：whl@eq-he.ac.cn

中图分类号: P315.9
计量
- 文章访问数: 625
- HTML全文浏览量: 188
- PDF下载量: 19
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-12-18
- 修回日期: 2019-04-22
- 刊出日期: 2019-05-01

Instruction of earthquake early warning ShakeAlert testing platform

1.
Hebei Earthquake Agency，Shijiazhuang 050021，China
2.
Earthquake Science Center，Menlo Park，CA，USA，94025
3.
China Earthquake Networks Center，Beijing 100045，China

摘要

摘要: 美国地震预警系统ShakeAlert目前已向美国西海岸3个州的试验用户发送地震预警信息。地震预警算法在正式上线之前必须经过严格的实时原位测试和离线测试。实时原位测试主要针对被测试系统或模块的鲁棒性进行压力测试，以评估新的系统是否可以上线运行；离线测试选取一定数量的历史地震事件进行回放测试，并基于点源结果和地震动强度预测结果这两种方式对系统的算法进行测试评估。本文以Cochran等^[1]这篇文章为蓝本，编译并概要介绍了美国地震预警系统ShakeAlert测试与评估的流程和算法等。
- 地震预警 /
- ShakeAlert /
- 测试方法 /
- 评估指标
Abstract: An earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, is providing alerts to beta end users in the western United States. Earthquake early warning algorithms have to undergo rigorous real-time and off-line testing before being accepted into the ShakeAlert production system. Real-time in situ tests ensure functionality in the current seismic environment and the robustness of candidate code. The off-line tests use a data suite of historical events, based on point-source assessments and ground-motion predictions assessments to give a comprise stress test of candidate code to assess if the code is production ready.
- earthquake early warning /
- ShakeAlert /
- test /
- assessment parameters

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图 1 美国地震预警系统ShakeAlert主要组成部分

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 最佳匹配事件各个评估指标结果分布图

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 参与点源结果测试的历史地震事件列表^*

区域	发震日期（年-月-日）	发震时刻（UTC）（时:分:秒）	纬度/°N	经度/°E	震级
南加州（17）	1999-10-16	09:46:44.130	34.5940	−116.2710	7.10
	2002-09-03	07:08:51.870	33.9173	−117.7758	4.75
	2003-02-22	12:19:10.580	34.3098	−116.848	4.99
	2004-02-14	12:43:11.380	35.0385	−119.1315	4.34
	2004-06-15	22:28:48.160	32.3287	−117.9175	4.98
	2005-01-06	14:35:27.670	34.1250	−117.4387	4.42
	2005-04-16	19:18:13.550	35.0272	−119.1783	4.59
	2005-06-12	15:41:46.540	33.5288	−116.5727	5.2
	2005-08-31	22:47:45.640	33.1648	−115.6357	4.59
	2005-09-02	01:27:19.810	33.1598	−115.6370	5.11
	2008-07-29	18:42:15.710	33.9530	−117.7613	5.39
	2010-04-04	22:40:42.360	32.2862	−115.2953	7.2
	2010-07-07	23:53:33.530	33.4205	−116.4887	5.43
	2013-03-11	16:56:06.040	33.5025	−116.4572	4.7
	2013-05-29	14:38:03.27	34.413	−119.926	4.80
	2014-03-29	04:09:42.31	33.932	−117.917	5.10
	2014-07-05	16:59:34.07	34.280	−117.028	4.58
北加州（12）	2003-12-22	19:15:56.240	35.7005	−121.1005	6.50
	2004-09-18	23:02:17.750	38.0095	−118.6785	5.4
	2004-09-28	17:15:24.250	35.8182	−120.3660	5.97
	2005-06-15	02:50:54.00	41.292	−125.953	7.2
		2007-10-31	03:04:54.810	37.4335	−121.7743	5.45
		2010-01-10	00:27:39.32	40.65200	−124.69250	6.50
		2012-10-21	06:55:09.51	36.30967	−120.85600	5.29
		2013-05-24	03:47:08.18	40.1918	−121.0595	5.69
		2014-01-23	04:10:41.19	40.4110	−125.3412	4.63
		2014-02-06	19:42:21.03	35.5260	−121.2710	4.13
		2014-03-10	05:18:13.43	40.82867	−125.13383	6.80
		2014-08-24	10:20:44.06	38.21550	−122.31167	6.02
太平洋西北岸-俄勒冈州和华盛顿州（11）	2001-02-28	18:54:32.00	47.149	−122.727	6.8
	2004-07-12	16:45:00.73	44.329	−124.490	4.9
	2006-10-08	02:48:26.65	46.85	−121.6	4.7
	2008-07-14	18:45:55.17	45.127	-120.950	4.2
	2008-07-31	05:02:43.12	48.154	−122.747	4.0
	2010-07-28	16:12:05.61	43.756	−125.815	5.2
	2011-02-14	18:35:25.74	46.282	−122.212	3.8
	2011-09-09	19:41:34.15	49.535	−126.893	6.4
	2013-06-27	02:45:35.90	47.824	−120.689	4.3
	2013-08-04	13:22:27.64	49.661	−127.429	5.5
	2014-04-24	03:10:10.15	49.6388	−127.7316	6.5
^*数据来源于http://scedc.caltech.edu/research-tools/eewtesting.html

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表 2 地震动预测评价指标及释义

评价指标	英文名称	释义
正确发布	TP：Ture Positive	准确估计该点会超过阈值，并及时发布预警信息
错误发布	FP：False Positive	错误估计该点会超过阈值，并发布预警信息
正确未发布	TN：True Negative	准确估计该点不会超过阈值，并未发布预警信息
错误未发布	FN：False Negative	错误估计该点不会超过阈值，并未发布预警信息

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参考文献(16)

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