地震预警的收益与成本

JenniferA. Strauss; Richard M.Allen; 侯宝瑞; 李山有

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.02.003

地震预警的收益与成本

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.02.003

中国地震局工程力学研究所，哈尔滨 150080

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划National Key R & DProgram of China（2018YFC1504003）资助。

详细信息

通讯作者:
Jennifer A. Strauss，e-mail： jastrauss@berkeley.edu

中图分类号: P315.9
计量
- 文章访问数: 549
- HTML全文浏览量: 217
- PDF下载量: 24
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-11-25
- 修回日期: 2016-11-27
- 刊出日期: 2019-02-01

摘要

摘要: 地震预警是快速检测正在发生的地震并向身处潜在危险地区的人群和基础设施发出警报。日本和墨西哥目前正在运行公共地震预警系统，而土耳其、中国台湾、中国大陆、罗马尼亚和美国仅运行面向特殊用户发布警报的小规模地震预警系统。地震预警预报能在强烈地震动到达前数秒至数分间发布，世界地震预警应用实例表明，利用这段预警时间能够减轻地震对社会多方面的影响。人们可以利用预警时间采取蹲下-掩护-抓住的处置策略减少伤亡，甚至在预警时间足够的情况下，撤离有风险的建筑物。利用警报时间还可以降低列车脱轨风险、限制化学反应、保护医院患者、预防火灾；保护危险环境下的工人，免受坠落物砸伤/被夹伤。本文不能详尽地列出美国地震预警系统的应用实例和减灾收益，但收益明显大于成本。拯救3人生命、2个半导体工厂收到警报、1列旧金山湾区捷运系统（BART）的列车减速、非致命受伤率降低1%和燃气火灾率降低0.25%，上述任一项因减灾避免的损失价值都足够维持整个美国西海岸的预警系统运行一年。地震预警同时能够减少50%以上的在地震中受伤的人数。

HTML全文

图 1 区域地震预警概念的代表性图示（原图为彩色）

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 （a）ShakeAlert用户端显示的1989年洛马普列塔地震的模拟警报截图。红星是震中位置，黄色和红色圆圈是P波与S波波阵面。警报信息的关键是用户位置的震动烈度和S波（代表发生强震）到达时间。这是加州大学伯克利分校的警报，蓝色房子图标指示的位置。UserDisplay是基于Java的应用程序，可以在任何计算机上运行并可适用于ShakeAlert测试用户。（b）相同情景事件的MyEEW智能手机App界面。带有用户位置的震动烈度的声响警报是最早自动收到的（左截图）。当用户触摸收到的通知，一个简单的屏幕显示出用户位置处的预期震动烈度和S波到达时间的倒计时（中间截图）。通过触摸的“地图”链接（右上角），屏幕会显示更多信息，地震和用户位置的地图、震级、震动烈度和倒计时（右截图）（原图为彩色）

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 美国西海岸预警系统运行成本（橙色）与部分可识别的节约（绿色）的比较。所有的圆盘都按代表1 000万美元的白色圆盘标定（原图为彩色）

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

参考文献(39)

[1]	Heaton T H,Series N,May N. A model for a seismic computerized alert network[J]. Science,1985,228(4702):987-990 doi: 10.1126/science.228.4702.987
[2]	Bose M,Heaton T,Hauksson E. Rapid estimation of earthquake source and ground-motion parameters for earthquake early warning using data from a single three-component broadband or strong-motion sensor[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2012,102(2):738-750 doi: 10.1785/0120110152
[3]	Serdar Kuyuk H,Allen R M,Brown H,et al. Designing a network-based earthquake early warning algorithm for California:ElarmS-2[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2014,104(1):162-173 doi: 10.1785/0120130146
[4]	Cua G,Fischer M,Heaton T,et al. Real-time performance of the virtual seismologist earthquake early warning algorithm in southern California[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett.,2009,80(5):740-747 doi: 10.1785/gssrl.80.5.740
[5]	Grapenthin R,Johanson I,Allen R M. The 2014 M_w 6.0 Napa earthquake,California:Observations from real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett.,2014(41):8269-8276
[6]	Grapenthin R,Johanson I A,Allen R M. Operational real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning[J]. J. Geophys. Res.,2014,119(10):7944-7965 doi: 10.1002/2014JB011400
[7]	Bose M. Allen R M, Brown H, et al. CISN ShakeAlert: An earthquake early warning demonstration system for California[C]//Wenzel F and Zschau J（Editors）. Early Warning for Geological Disasters. Springer, Berlin, Germany, 2014: 49-69
[8]	Brocher T M,Baltay A S,Hardebeck J L,et al. The M_w 6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett.,2015,86(2):309-326
[9]	Dreger D S,Huang M,Rodgers A,et al. Kinematic finite-source model for the 24 August 2014 South Napa,California,earthquake from joint inversion of seismic,GPS,and InSAR data[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett.,2015,86(2):327-334
[10]	Hauksson E, Guarino A, Hutton K, et al. CISN/SCSC Executive Summary[DB/OL]. http://www.scsn.org/2014lahabra.html（last accessed December 2014）.
[11]	Espinosa-Aranda J M, Petel E. Earthquake alerts: From black magic to science and engineering[C]. Third International Conference on Earthquake Early Warning, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, California, 3-5 September 2014
[12]	Suarez G,Novelo D,Mansilla E. Performance evaluation of the seismic alert system(SAS)in Mexico City:A seismological and a social perspective[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett.,2009,80(5):707-716 doi: 10.1785/gssrl.80.5.707
[13]	Fujinawa Y,Noda Y. Japan’s earthquake early warning system on 11 March 2011:Performance,shortcomings,and changes[J]. Earthq. Spectra,2013,29:S341-S368 doi: 10.1193/1.4000127
[14]	Zschau J, Gasparini P, Papadopoulos G. Seismic Early Warning for Europe Final Rept[DB/OL] http://www.amracenter.com/SAFER/doc/dissemination/SAFER_Final_Report.pdf（last accessed February 2016）
[15]	Zollo A,Iannaccone G,Lancieri M,et al. Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy:Methodologies and performance evaluation[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett.,2009,36:L00B07 doi: 10.1029/2008GL036689
[16]	Alcik H,Ozel O,Apaydin N,et al. A study on warning algorithms for Istanbul earthquake early warning system[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett.,2009,36:L00B05 doi: 10.1029/2008GL036659
[17]	Cauzzi C, Behr Y, Clinton J, et al. Final report on the feasibility study and initial EEW implementation efforts for nuclear power plants in Switzerland[R]. 2014, 28
[18]	Hsiao N C,Wu Y M,Shin T C,et al. Development of earthquake early warning system in Taiwan[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett.,2009,36:L00B02 doi: 10.1029/2008GL036596
[19]	Federal Emergency Management Agency（FEMA）. Hazard mitigation planning risk assessment[R], 2014
[20]	Earthquake Country Alliance. How to protect yourself during an earthquake[DB/OL]. http://www.earthquakecountry.info/dropcoverholdon/#whattodo（last accessed November 2015）.
[21]	Brittingham R,Wachtendorf T. The effect of situated access on people with disabilities:An examination of sheltering and temporary housing after the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami[J]. Earthq. Spectra,2013,29:S433-S455 doi: 10.1193/1.4000116
[22]	Earthquake Country Alliance. Earthquake preparedness guide for people with disabilities and other access or functional needs[DB/OL]. 2014. http://www.earthquakecountry.org/downloads/ShakeOut_Earthquake_Guide_Disabilities_AFN.pdf（last accessed November 2015）.
[23]	Horiuchi Y. Earthquake early warning hospital applications[J]. J. Disast. Res.,2009,4(4):237-241
[24]	Motosaka M.,Homma M Earthquake early warning system application for school disaster preventio[J]. J. Disast. Res.,2009,4(4):229-236
[25]	Layne R. Japan quake: how otis rose to the challenge[J]. Bloomberg Business, 24 March 2011. http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/magazine/content/11_14/b4222020340761.htm（last accessed February 2016）
[26]	Allen R M,Gasparini P,Kamigaichi O,et al. The status of earthquake early warning around the world:An introductory overview[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett.,2009,80(5):682-693 doi: 10.1785/gssrl.80.5.682
[27]	Ionescu C, Bose M, Wenzel F. Early warning system for deep Vrancea（Romania）earthquakes// Gasparini P, Manfredi G, Zschau J（Editors）. Earthquake early warning systems. 2007: 343-349
[28]	Pittore M,Bindi D,Stankiewicz J,et al. Toward a loss-driven earthquake early warning and rapid response system for Kyrgyzstan(central Asia)[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett.,2014,85(6):1328-1340 doi: 10.1785/0220140106
[29]	Pagano L,Sica S. Earthquake early warning for earth dams:Concepts and objectives[J]. Nat. Hazards.,2012,66(2):303-318
[30]	Shimamura M,Keyaki T. How Japan’s bullet trains survived the 2011 Great Tohoku earthquake[J]. Proc. Eastern Asia Soc. Transport.Stud.,2013,9:49
[31]	Nakamura Y. First actual P-wave alarm systems and examples of disaster prevention by them[C]. 14th World conference on earthquake engineering. Beijing, China, 12-17 October 2008
[32]	Bakun W H,Fischer F G,Jensen E G,et al. Early warning system for aftershocks[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1994,84(2):359-365
[33]	Burkett E R, Given D D, Jones L M. ShakeAlert—An Earthquake Early Warning System for the United States West Coast[Z]. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, factsheet, 2014: 2014-3083
[34]	Given D D, Cochran E S, Heaton T H, et al. Technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert production system—An earthquake early warning system for the west coast of the United States[R]. U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept. 2014-1097, 2014, 25 pp, doi: 10.3133/ofr20141097
[35]	Holden R. Technical and economic feasibility of an earthquake early warning system in California[R]. Special Publication: California Division of Mines and Geology, Sacramento, California, 1989
[36]	Shoaf K I,Nguyen L H,Sareen H R,et al. Injuries as a result of California earthquakes in the past decade[J]. Disasters,1998,22(3):218-235 doi: 10.1111/disa.1998.22.issue-3
[37]	Porter K,Shoaf K,Seligson H. Value of injuries in the Northridge earthquake[J]. Earthq. Spectra,2006,22(2):555-563 doi: 10.1193/1.2194529
[38]	National Transportation Safety Board. Preliminary Rept[R]. 2015. http://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Pages/DCA15MR010_Preliminary.aspx（last accessed February 2016）
[39]	Scawthorn C, Eidinger J M, Schiff A J（Editors）（2005）. Fire Following Earthquake. ASCE Publications. 352 pp.