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地震预警的收益与成本

JenniferA. Strauss Richard M.Allen 侯宝瑞 李山有

JenniferA. Strauss, Richard M.Allen, 侯宝瑞, 李山有. 地震预警的收益与成本[J]. 地震科学进展, 2019, (2): 3-13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.02.003
引用本文: JenniferA. Strauss, Richard M.Allen, 侯宝瑞, 李山有. 地震预警的收益与成本[J]. 地震科学进展, 2019, (2): 3-13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.02.003

地震预警的收益与成本

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4975.2019.02.003
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划National Key R & DProgram of China(2018YFC1504003)资助。
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    Jennifer A. Strauss,e-mail: jastrauss@berkeley.edu

  • 中图分类号: P315.9

  • 摘要: 地震预警是快速检测正在发生的地震并向身处潜在危险地区的人群和基础设施发出警报。日本和墨西哥目前正在运行公共地震预警系统,而土耳其、中国台湾、中国大陆、罗马尼亚和美国仅运行面向特殊用户发布警报的小规模地震预警系统。地震预警预报能在强烈地震动到达前数秒至数分间发布,世界地震预警应用实例表明,利用这段预警时间能够减轻地震对社会多方面的影响。人们可以利用预警时间采取蹲下-掩护-抓住的处置策略减少伤亡,甚至在预警时间足够的情况下,撤离有风险的建筑物。利用警报时间还可以降低列车脱轨风险、限制化学反应、保护医院患者、预防火灾;保护危险环境下的工人,免受坠落物砸伤/被夹伤。本文不能详尽地列出美国地震预警系统的应用实例和减灾收益,但收益明显大于成本。拯救3人生命、2个半导体工厂收到警报、1列旧金山湾区捷运系统(BART)的列车减速、非致命受伤率降低1%和燃气火灾率降低0.25%,上述任一项因减灾避免的损失价值都足够维持整个美国西海岸的预警系统运行一年。地震预警同时能够减少50%以上的在地震中受伤的人数。

     

  • 图  1  区域地震预警概念的代表性图示(原图为彩色)

    图  2  (a)ShakeAlert用户端显示的1989年洛马普列塔地震的模拟警报截图。红星是震中位置,黄色和红色圆圈是P波与S波波阵面。警报信息的关键是用户位置的震动烈度和S波(代表发生强震)到达时间。这是加州大学伯克利分校的警报,蓝色房子图标指示的位置。UserDisplay是基于Java的应用程序,可以在任何计算机上运行并可适用于ShakeAlert测试用户。(b)相同情景事件的MyEEW智能手机App界面。带有用户位置的震动烈度的声响警报是最早自动收到的(左截图)。当用户触摸收到的通知,一个简单的屏幕显示出用户位置处的预期震动烈度和S波到达时间的倒计时(中间截图)。通过触摸的“地图”链接(右上角),屏幕会显示更多信息,地震和用户位置的地图、震级、震动烈度和倒计时(右截图)(原图为彩色)

    图  3  美国西海岸预警系统运行成本(橙色)与部分可识别的节约(绿色)的比较。所有的圆盘都按代表1 000万美元的白色圆盘标定(原图为彩色)

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2016-11-25
  • 修回日期:  2016-11-27
  • 刊出日期:  2019-02-01

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