Review of explosive yield estimation
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摘要: 利用地震学方法估算爆破当量，一直以来都是地震学研究的难点之一。影响当量估算的因素很多，如震源特征、事件埋深、传播路径、能量衰减、地壳结构的不均匀性，等等。想要精确估算特定事件的当量，除了要克服以上各种困难外，还需选择合适的当量经验公式。当量与事件所释放的能量直接相关，震级在一定程度上可以反映能量的大小。目前使用的当量估算公式主要是震级-当量关系公式，其中，有利用体波震级、面波震级以及尾波估算当量的，各有利弊。本文的主要目的是总结目前存在的当量估算公式，并对其影响因素做简单分析。重点描述地下核试验当量估算，汇总了历次朝鲜核试验的信息。Abstract: Yield estimation of explosions using seismic methods is always a difficult problem in seismology. There are many factors that can affect the result of yield estimation such as source characteristics, depth of burial, propagation path, attenuation, variation of the crustal structure and so on. An accurate yield estimation needs a suitable relationship which is always empirical and must solve the problems mentioned above. Yield is directly related to the power released by the events that somewhat can be expressed with magnitude. Magnitude-yield estimation relationship is commonly used in yield estimation including body-wave magnitude, surface-wave magnitude and coda wave magnitude, each has its advantages and disadvantages. The main purpose of the paper is to summarize the existing yield estimation relationships and make a simple analysis on interference factors. We focus on the description of underground nuclear explosions’ yield and summarize the information of North Korea underground nuclear explosions.
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表 1 朝鲜5次核试验基本资料
事件 纬度/°N 经度/°E 相对位置 作者 2006-10-09T01:35:29.900 41.263 8 129.085 9 卫星图象 Rodgers等[72] 2006-10-09T01:35:28.000 41.287 4 129.108 3 Wen等[73] 2006-10-09 41.286 7 129.090 2 Murphy等[74] 2009-05-25 41.275 0 129.089 0 09 to 06：0.4 km north，1.8 km west Selby[75] 2009-05-25T00:54:43.180 41.293 9 129.087 1 09 to 06：723 m north，2235 m west Wen等[73] 2009-05-25T00:54:45.300 41.292 5 129.065 7 09 to 06：0.5 km north，2.3 km west Murphy等[74] 2009-05-25T00:54:43.110 41.293 6 129.077 0 Zhao等[76] 2009-05-25 09 to 06：503 m north，2589 m west 潘常周等[77] 2013-02-12T02:57:51.331 41.290 8 129.076 3 13 to 09：345 m south，453 m west Zhang等[42] 2013-02-12T02:57:51.270 41.292 3 129.072 7 13 to 09：125 m south，360 m west Zhao等[76] 2013-02-12 13 to 09：257 m south，385 m west 潘常周等[77] 2016-01-06 41.298 0 129.071 5 1601 to 13：800 m north，400 m west http://seis.ustc.edu.cn/News/201601/t20160106_234889.html 2016-01-06T01:30:00.970 41.300 3 129.067 8 1601 to 13：900 m north，500 m west Zhao等[78] 2016-09-09 41.298 5 129.078 0 http://seis.ustc.edu.cn/News/201609/t20160909_253322.html 
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表 2 朝鲜5次核试验研究成果
事件 震级 深度/m Y/kt 误差 作者 2006 0.2～2 Pg/Lg、Pn/Lg幅值比 Koper等[80] mb（Lg）=3.93 0.48 大于2 Hz的Pg/Lg，Pn/Lg Zhao等[88] 0.6～1.7 Schlittenhardt等[82] mb（Lg）=4.32±0.13；MS=2.88±0.11 200 1.22 3～11 Hz的Pg/Lg幅值比 Chun等 [83] 20～300 0.2～0.8 Pasyanos等[84] MS=2.93±0.19 0.42～3.17 范娜等[81] MS=2.93±0.20 200 0.9 mb-MS识别失效 Murphy等[74] 2009 3.45～6.36 Kim等[89] MW=4.5，mb=4.6±0.1；MS=3.6±0.1 mb-MS判据失效；大于4 Hz的Pn/Lg比有效 Shin等[90] mb=4.86±0.13；MS= 3.52±0.16 550 6.51 3～11 Hz的Pg/Lg幅值比 Chun等[83] 70～600 1～5 Pasyanos等[84] mb（Lg）=4.53 2.35 mb-MS失效 Zhao等[43] MS=3.66±0.10 550 4.6 Murphy等[74] MS=3.62±0.21 2.06～15.53 范娜等[81] mb（Lg）=4.53±0.12 7.0±1.9 Pg/Lg比值识别 Zhang等[42] 2013 mb（Lg）=4.91±0.22 7.47 大于2 Hz的P/S幅值比 Zhao等[76] mb（Lg）=4.89±0.14 12.2±3.8 Zhang等[42] 2016-01 mb（Lg）=4.7±0.2 4（误差范围2～8 kt） Zhao等[78] 2016-01 11.3±4.2 http://seis.ustc.edu.cn/News/201601/t20160106_234889.html 2016-09 17.8±5.9 http://seis.ustc.edu.cn/News/201609/t20160909_253322.html 2016-09 6（误差范围为3～12 kt） http://www.igg.cas.cn/xwzx/kyjz/201609/t20160910_4660761.html
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表 3 CENC和USGS关于朝鲜5次核试验的研究成果
机构 事件 纬度/°N 经度/°E 震级 2006-10-09T09:35:26.7 41.30 129.10 M4.0 2009-05-25T08:54:45.3 41.30 129.00 M4.5 CENC 2013-02-12T10:57:52.8 41.30 129.00 M4.9 2016-01-06T09:30:01.9 41.30 129.10 M4.9 2016-09-09T08:30:00.0 41.40 129.10 M5.0 2006-10-09T01:35:28.02（UTC） 41.294 129.094 mb4.3 2009-05-25T00:54:43.12（UTC） 41.303 129.037 mb4.7 USGS 2013-02-12T02:57:51.30（UTC） 41.308 129.076 mb5.1 2016-01-06T01:30:02.00（UTC） 41.305 129.039 mb5.1 2016-09-09T00:30:01.89（UTC） 41.298 129.015 mb5.3
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