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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

流体注采类工业活动地震风险初筛的地质指标体系:机理证据与分级评价

Geological Indicator System for Preliminary Screening of Seismicity Risk Associated with Fluid Injection and Production Activities: Mechanism Evidence and Graded Evaluation

  • 摘要: 页岩气水力压裂、增强地热系统开发、废水深井注入及CO2地质封存等存在流体注采的工程活动,可导致周边断层激活,诱发地震活动,已成为制约此类工程安全开展的关键问题。在项目规划阶段建立科学的诱发地震风险初步筛查地质指标体系,对于识别场地风险、优化井位选址、降低后续运营风险具有重要意义。本文聚焦初筛环节的地质维度,系统提取10个代表性国际诱发地震风险管理框架中初筛阶段的地质相关指标,分析了地质指标覆盖度、量化分级标准、指标重要性层次等问题,系统的研究了岩性、断层、储层、基底特征与特殊地层五类地质因素影响诱发地震的机理。在此基础上,按决策功能将15个地质指标重构为判否型、主控型两类,给出各指标的分级标准与打分方法,建立判否前置、分级打分、综合集成的诱发地震风险评价的地质评价流程。该指标体系与评价流程可作为流体注采类工业活动诱发地震风险初步筛查综合评价中致灾可能性维度的地质输入模块,其中滑脱层、礁体等指标的引入弥补了现有框架对特殊地层关注的不足。

     

    Abstract: Induced seismicity associated with fluid injection and production operations—including shale gas hydraulic fracturing, enhanced geothermal system development, deep-well wastewater injection, and CO2geological storage—has become a critical issue constraining the safe implementation of such engineering activities. Establishing a scientific geological indicator system for the preliminary screening of induced seismicity risk at the project planning stage is of great significance for identifying site risks, optimizing well placement, and reducing subsequent operational risks. Focusing on the geological (hazard potential) dimension of preliminary screening, this paper systematically extracts the geology-related indicators adopted in the screening stage of ten representative international risk management frameworks for induced seismicity, and analyzes issues concerning the coverage of geological indicators, quantitative grading criteria, and the prioritization of indicators. The mechanistic evidence regarding the influence of five categories of geological factors—lithology, faults, reservoirs, basement characteristics, and special strata—on induced seismicity is then systematically reviewed. On this basis, fifteen geological indicators are reconstructed into two decision-function categories, namely screening-out and dominant indicators, with grading criteria and scoring methods specified for each indicator, and a geological evaluation procedure featuring "screening-out first, graded scoring, and comprehensive integration" is established. The proposed indicator system and evaluation procedure can serve as the geological input module for the hazard potential dimension in the comprehensive preliminary screening assessment of induced seismicity risk associated with fluid injection and production activities; in particular, the introduction of indicators such as detachment layers and reef bodies fills the gap of existing frameworks in addressing special strata.

     

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