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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

基于趋势转折法的辽宁地区地下流体数据预报效能分析

Prediction efficiency analysis of underground fluid data in Liaoning area based on trend turning method

  • 摘要: 为进一步了解辽宁地区地下流体数据异常趋势变化的地震预报效能,根据流体学科趋势转折法原理编写matlab程序,分析辽宁地区地下流体水温、水位和水氡气氡日均值观测数据的趋势性变化,并利用R值评分法检验地震预报效能。检验结果显示棋盘山水温、大石桥周家动水位、鞍山井静水位、丹东汤池静水位、盘锦齐一井静水位和岫岩1井溶解气氡浓度共6个测项利用R值评分校验时R>0,具有预测意义。其中棋盘山水温、大石桥周家动水位R值评分校验通过置信水平97.5%的显著性检验,具有显著预测意义。此6个测项在趋势转折形态和转折幅度上具有相似的规律性,在分布位置上集中在辽南及环渤海地区的郯庐断裂带及其分支构造走向沿线上,这种规律对今后辽宁地区地震预报工作具有实际的参考价值。

     

    Abstract: In order to further understand the seismic prediction efficiency of abnormal trend change of underground fluid data in Liaoning area, the matlab program is compiled according to the principle of fluid discipline trend turning method, and the trend change of daily mean observation data of underground fluid water temperature, water level and water radon in Liaoning area is analyzed, and the R value scoring method is used to test the seismic prediction efficiency. The test results show that the Qipanshan water temperature, the Dashiqiao Zhoujia dynamic water level, the Anshan well static water level, the Dandong Tangchi static water level, the Panjin Qiyi well static water level and the Xiuyan 1 well dissolved gas radon concentration are six. The R value is used to check the R value when R > 0, which is of predictive significance. Among them, the water temperature of Qipan Mountain and the R value of Zhoujia dynamic water level of Dashiqiao passed the significance test of 97.5 % confidence level, which had significant predictive significance. These six items have similar regularity in the trend turning shape and turning amplitude, and are concentrated in the Tanlu fault zone and its branch structures in the southern Liaoning and the Bohai Rim.This law has practical reference value for earthquake prediction in Liaoning in the future.

     

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