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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

2025年山西临汾4.1级和4.2级地震前固体潮调制比异常特征分析

Analysis of the anomalous characteristics of the modulation ratio of solid tide before the Linfen,Shanxi M4.1 and M4.2 earthquakes in 2025

  • 摘要: 起算震级是决定固体潮调制比扫描结果的核心参数之一,当前固体潮调制比扫描分析多以单一特定震级为起算基准,针对不同震级档扫描结果的对比研究较为匮乏。2025年1月10日至7月25日,汾渭断陷带南段山西临汾地区半年内连续发生4.1级和4.2级两次地震,受到地震学家高度关注。扫描山西临汾4.1级和4.2级地震震前ML1.7震级档和ML2.5震级档固体潮调制比图像,结果表明:不同震级档固体潮调制比异常演化特征存在显著差异,随着起始扫描震级的升高,固体潮调制比高值异常的范围显著扩大、幅度明显升高,且与震中位置和发震时刻的关联性增强。震前扫描得到的固体潮调制比高值异常,主要源于ML≥2.5级地震的调制效应。在震情跟踪工作中,采用固体潮调制比方法时应通过多震级档的对比分析选择适合研究区的起算震级。

     

    Abstract: The starting magnitude is one of the core parameters determining the scanning results of solid tide modulation ratio. Currently, the modulation ratio scanning analysis of solid tides is mostly based on a single specific magnitude as the starting benchmark, and comparative studies on scanning results across different magnitude bins remain scarce. From January 10 to July 25, 2025, two earthquakes with magnitudes 4.1 and 4.2 occurred consecutively in the southern section of the Fenwei Fault Zone in Linfen, Shanxi Province within six months, attracting high attention from seismologists. We scanned the solid tide modulation ratio images of the ML1.7 and ML2.5 magnitude ranges before the Linfen, Shanxi M4.1 and M4.2 earthquakes. The results show that there are significant differences in the abnormal evolution characteristics of the solid tide modulation ratio between different magnitude ranges. As the initial scanning magnitude increases, the range of the high-value anomaly of the solid tide modulation ratio expand significantly, and its amplitude increases obviously. Meanwhile, the correlation with the epicenter location and occurrence time becomes stronger. The high modulation ratio anomalies of solid tide obtained from pre-earthquake scanning are primarily attributed to the modulation effect of earthquakes ML ≥ 2.5. Therefore, when using the solid tide modulation ratio method in earthquake tracking work, an appropriate starting magnitude for the research area should be selected through comparative analysis across multiple magnitude bins.

     

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