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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

2025年山西临汾4.1级和4.2级地震前固体潮调制比异常特征分析

Analysis of the anomalous characteristics of the solid tide modulation ratio before the Linfen,Shanxi M4.1 and M4.2 earthquakes in 2025

  • 摘要: 起算震级是决定固体潮调制比扫描结果的核心参数之一,当前固体潮调制比扫描分析多以单一特定震级为起算基准,针对不同震级档扫描结果的对比研究较为匮乏。2025年1月10日和7月25日,汾渭断陷带南段山西临汾地区半年内连续发生4.1级和4.2级两次地震,受到地震学家高度关注。本文扫描了山西临汾4.1级和4.2级地震震前ML1.7震级档和ML2.5震级档固体潮调制比图像。结果表明:不同震级档固体潮调制比异常演化特征存在显著差异,随着起始扫描震级的升高,固体潮调制比高值异常的范围显著扩大、幅度明显升高,且与震中位置和发震时刻的关联性增强。震前扫描得到的固体潮调制比高值异常,主要源于ML≥2.5地震的调制效应。在震情跟踪工作中,采用固体潮调制比方法时应通过多震级档的对比分析选择适合研究区的起算震级。

     

    Abstract: The starting magnitude is one of the core parameters that determine the scanning results of the solid tide modulation ratio. Currently, the modulation ratio scanning analysis of solid tides is mostly based on a single, specific magnitude as the benchmark, and comparative studies of scanning results across bins of different magnitudes remain scarce. On January 10 and July 25, 2025, two earthquakes with magnitudes of 4.1 and 4.2 occurred consecutively in the southern section of the Fenwei fault zone in Linfen, Shanxi Province, within a six-month period, attracting the attention of seismologists. We scanned the solid tide modulation ratio images for the ML1.7 and ML2.5 magnitude ranges before the Linfen, Shanxi M4.1 and M4.2 earthquakes. The results show significant differences in the abnormal evolutionary characteristics of the solid tide modulation ratio across different magnitude ranges. As the initial scanning magnitude increased, the range of the high-value anomaly in the solid tide modulation ratio expanded, and its amplitude increased. Meanwhile, the correlation between the epicenter location and occurrence time becomes stronger. The high modulation ratio anomalies of solid tide obtained from pre-earthquake scanning are primarily attributed to the modulation effect of earthquakes ML≥2.5. Therefore, when using the solid tide modulation ratio method for earthquake tracking, an appropriate starting magnitude for the study area should be selected through a comparative analysis across multiple magnitude bins.

     

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