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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

干热岩压裂诱发地震风险管控“交通灯”系统搭建初探

Preliminary design of a traffic light system for risk management of earthquakes induced by hot dry rock fracturing

  • 摘要: 干热岩是一种具有战略价值的清洁能源,具有储量大、输出稳定、可再生等优点。诱发地震是干热岩开发利用过程中面临的主要挑战之一,并造成了国际上多个项目被迫终止或推迟,严重制约了相关行业健康快速发展。本文详细论述了国际上现有干热岩压裂诱发地震风险防控“交通灯”系统的组成、典型案例、存在问题。基于与孕震控震因素直接相关、易于测定、系统控制的理念,提出了构建“交通灯”系统决策参数选取和阈值设置应遵循的基本原则,搭建了一种以地震震级、b值、PGV、注入液量、注入速率、井口注入压力6个参数组成的“交通灯”系统,指出了“交通灯”系统面临的主要挑战以及今后发展方向,以期对干热岩、页岩气/油等水力压裂诱发地震风险管控提供借鉴,服务国家深部资源能源开发利用战略。

     

    Abstract: Hot dry rock (HDR) is a strategic clean energy resource with considerable advantages, including abundant reserves, stable power output, and renewability. However, induced seismicity remains a primary challenge in HDR development and represents a critical bottleneck, leading to the termination or postponement of several international projects. This study systematically reviews the composition, typical case studies, and existing problems of current traffic light systems (TLS) for seismic risk mitigation during HDR hydraulic stimulation. Based on the principles of selecting parameters that directly relate to seismogenesis control, are easily measurable, and facilitate systematic management, we have proposed fundamental criteria for determining TLS decision parameters and threshold settings. Subsequently, we developed an enhanced TLS framework incorporating six key parameters, namely, earthquake magnitude, b-value, peak ground velocity (PGV), injected fluid volume, injection rate, and wellhead injection pressure. We identified the major challenges facing TLS implementation and suggested future research directions, aiming to provide references for induced seismicity risk management in HDR, shale gas, and other energy sectors involving hydraulic fracturing, supporting national strategic initiatives for deep-resource exploitation.

     

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