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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

基于概率统计法的横岗水库诱发地震危险性评价

Seismic hazard assessment of Henggang Reservoir based on probabilistic statistical methods

  • 摘要: 水库诱发地震是水库蓄水后或水位变化可能引发的潜在地震灾害,其风险评估对工程安全和区域防灾减灾至关重要。本文概述了国内外水库诱发地震研究的进展,并指出了目前水库诱发地震在诱震原因、发震条件、诱发机制等方面的不足,这些不足可能会影响水库诱发地震危险性评价结果的有效程度。为此,本文在总结定性、半定量及综合性水库诱发地震危险性评价方法的优劣势后,以已建横岗水库为例,基于概率统计法结合水库诱震七因素,分析了水库诱发地震危险性及概率统计法待改进的方向。结果显示该水库诱发强震、中强震、弱震、微震的概率均处于较低水平,这一结果与区域及近场区地震台网建库20多年来实际监测数据相吻合。并通过世界水库蓄水时间与发震时间在不同间隔时间发震频次规律与水库近场区20多年来地震监测数据的现状分析,进一步验证了基于概率统计法的横岗水库诱发地震危险性评价结果具有可信性。研究结果可为中小型水库诱发地震危险性评价提供参考与借鉴,同时为进一步提升统计预测模型的准确性指明了方向。

     

    Abstract: Reservoir-induced seismicity refers to potential seismic hazards that may be triggered by reservoir impoundment or water level fluctuations, and its risk assessment is crucial for engineering safety and regional disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper outlines the progress in research on reservoir-induced seismicity both domestically and internationally, and highlights current shortcomings in understanding its causes, triggering conditions, and mechanisms. These gaps may affect the validity of risk assessment results for reservoir-induced seismicity. To address this, after summarizing the strengths and weaknesses of qualitative, semi-quantitative, and comprehensive risk assessment methods, this study takes the constructed Henggang Reservoir as an example. Based on probabilistic statistical methods combined with seven reservoir-induced seismicity factors, the paper analyzes the seismic risk and identifies areas for improvement in the probabilistic statistical approach. The results indicate that the probabilities of the reservoir inducing strong, moderate, weak, and micro earthquakes are all at relatively low levels, which aligns with over 20 years of actual monitoring data from regional and near-field seismic networks. Furthermore, by analyzing global patterns of seismic frequency at different time intervals after reservoir impoundment and the seismic monitoring data from the reservoir's near-field area over the past two decades, the credibility of the risk assessment results for Henggang Reservoir based on probabilistic statistical methods is further validated. The findings can serve as a reference for seismic risk assessment of small and medium-sized reservoirs, while also pointing the way for enhancing the accuracy of statistical prediction models.

     

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