Abstract:
Reservoir-induced seismicity refers to potential seismic hazards that may be triggered by reservoir impoundment or water level fluctuations, and its risk assessment is crucial for engineering safety and regional disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper outlines the progress in research on reservoir-induced seismicity both domestically and internationally, and highlights current shortcomings in understanding its causes, triggering conditions, and mechanisms. These gaps may affect the validity of risk assessment results for reservoir-induced seismicity. To address this, after summarizing the strengths and weaknesses of qualitative, semi-quantitative, and comprehensive risk assessment methods, this study takes the constructed Henggang Reservoir as an example. Based on probabilistic statistical methods combined with seven reservoir-induced seismicity factors, the paper analyzes the seismic risk and identifies areas for improvement in the probabilistic statistical approach. The results indicate that the probabilities of the reservoir inducing strong, moderate, weak, and micro earthquakes are all at relatively low levels, which aligns with over 20 years of actual monitoring data from regional and near-field seismic networks. Furthermore, by analyzing global patterns of seismic frequency at different time intervals after reservoir impoundment and the seismic monitoring data from the reservoir's near-field area over the past two decades, the credibility of the risk assessment results for Henggang Reservoir based on probabilistic statistical methods is further validated. The findings can serve as a reference for seismic risk assessment of small and medium-sized reservoirs, while also pointing the way for enhancing the accuracy of statistical prediction models.