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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

社会数据共享生态下地震灾害情景构建的智能赋能体系构建

Construction of an intelligent empowerment system for earthquake disaster scenario construction in a social data-sharing ecosystem

  • 摘要: 地震灾害情景构建是提升防震减灾能力的关键技术手段,然而其精度与时效性仍然受到传统数据来源局限性的制约。本研究针对社会数据的广泛性、动态性与多样性特征,系统分析其在地震灾害情景构建中的赋能机制。通过梳理地震情景构建的数据需求图谱,提出社会数据分类分级框架,结合浙江省公共数据平台、社交媒体动态及商业遥感数据等案例,验证了多源数据融合对提升情景构建真实性、精细化程度与动态性的作用。研究发现,社会数据可有效弥补传统数据覆盖不足的缺陷,其应用显著增强了灾情预测、资源配置与公众响应的科学性。基于此,本研究提出数据共享机制、技术融合路径及政策创新建议,为推动地震灾害情景构建向“物理-社会”模型转型提供理论支撑与实践参考。

     

    Abstract: Earthquake disaster scenario construction constitutes a critical technological approach for enhancing earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation capabilities. However, its precision and timeliness remain constrained by the limitations of traditional data sources. This study systematically examined the enabling mechanisms of social data in earthquake disaster scenario construction, focusing on the characteristics of comprehensiveness, dynamism, and diversity. A hierarchical classification framework for social data is proposed by mapping the data requirements for scenario construction. Case studies integrating Zhejiang’s public data platforms, social media dynamics, and commercial remote-sensing data demonstrate that multi-source data fusion significantly improves scenario authenticity, refinement, and dynamic adaptability. The research reveals that social data effectively compensate for coverage gaps in traditional data sources, substantially strengthening the scientific validity of disaster prediction, resource allocation, and public response mechanisms. Building on these findings, the study proposes institutional innovations for data sharing, technological integration pathways, and policy recommendations, providing theoretical and practical foundations for advancing earthquake disaster scenario construction toward a “physical-social” modeling paradigm.

     

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