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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

赣南及邻区地震形势探讨

Discussion on the Seismic Situation in Gannan and Its Neighboring Areas

  • 摘要: 为了跟踪赣南及邻区(23.66°N~ 27.20°N,113.50°E~118.84°E)震情形势,本文运用地震地质、地震活动时空分布、地震能量、地震条带、地震空区、小震频次,研究了该区域地震活动特征。结果表明,该区域ML4.0上地震与东南沿海地震带5级以上地震具有同步活动特征,2018年以来ML2.5以上地震活动出现围空,2020年以来ML3.0以上地震活动成带分布,中等地震丛集增强,4~5级地震缺乏,处于能量积累状态,东南沿海地震带2016年7月已进入1900年以来的第5个活跃幕且中强以上地震活跃,赣南及邻区可能参与,认为未来1~3年存在发生中强以上地震的危险,特别要密切关注赣粤闽交界区地震活动。

     

    Abstract: In order to track the seismic situation in Gannan and its neighboring areas (23.66°N~ 27.20°N, 113.50°E~118.84°E), this paper uses seismic geology, spatiotemporal distribution of seismic activity, seismic energy, seismic bands, seismic gaps, and small earthquake frequency to study the seismic activity characteristics in the region. The results show that earthquakes in the ML4.0 region have synchronous activity characteristics with earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above in the southeast coastal seismic zone. Since 2018, earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or above have appeared in the surrounding area. Since 2020, earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 or above have been distributed in a belt, with an increase in the clustering of moderate earthquakes and a lack of earthquakes of magnitude 4-5, in a state of energy accumulation. In July 2016, the southeast coastal seismic zone has entered its fifth active phase since 1900, and earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above are active. Gannan and neighboring areas may be involved. It is believed that there is a risk of earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above occurring in the next 1-3 years, and special attention should be paid to seismic activity in the border area of Jiangxi, Guangdong, and Fujian.

     

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