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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

基于概率密度演化方法的埋地管道可靠度分析方法

Reliability Analysis Method for Buried Pipelines Based on Probability Density Evolution

  • 摘要: 地震作用下埋地管道动力分析是一个复杂的工程难题。充分考虑地震动的随机性,从概率和统计的角度探究埋地管道随机动力响应和可靠度,发展了一种基于概率密度演化和等效极值分布的可靠度分析方法,对埋地管道的位移进行随机动力分析和可靠度评价,并与MCS方法进行了比较验证。结果表明:广义概率密度演化方法是一种经济、高效的地震动态可靠度分析方法,可广泛应用于地震作用下非线性结构动态可靠度分析。地震作用下埋地管道的位移是敏感的,其位移会发生显著的非线性变化,显著的水平往复运动会加剧管道的疲劳损伤;同时,随着时间的推移管道会逐步下沉,严重威胁管道的安全运行,为保证埋地管道抗震安全,考虑地震动随机性进行埋地管道抗震性能评估是极其必要的。单一的评价指标无法准确评估全时态埋地管道的性能水平,基于GPDEM对埋地管道进行可靠度分析,能够合理表征地震过程中埋地管道动力响应概率密度函数的演化过程,可为埋地管道抗震设计提供一定的理论依据。

     

    Abstract: The dynamic analysis of buried pipelines subjected to seismic actions poses a complex engineering challenge. Taking full account of the randomness inherent in ground motions, a reliability analysis method, grounded in probability density evolution and equivalent extreme value distribution, has been developed. This method offers a probabilistic and statistical perspective to investigate the stochastic dynamic response and reliability of buried pipelines. It is utilized to conduct stochastic dynamic analysis and reliability assessment of pipeline displacements, and its validity is compared and confirmed against the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method. The results demonstrate that the Generalized Probability Density Evolution Method (GPDEM) is an economical and efficient approach for seismic dynamic reliability analysis, with broad applicability to the dynamic reliability analysis of nonlinear structures under seismic actions. The displacements of buried pipelines are highly sensitive to seismic actions, undergoing significant nonlinear changes. Pronounced horizontal reciprocating motions can exacerbate fatigue damage to the pipelines. Furthermore, over time, the pipelines may gradually subside, posing a severe threat to their safe operation. To ensure the seismic safety of buried pipelines, it is crucial to assess their seismic performance, taking into account the randomness of ground motions. A single evaluation index is inadequate for accurately assessing the performance level of buried pipelines across all time states. Reliability analysis based on GPDEM can reasonably characterize the evolution of the probability density function of the dynamic response of buried pipelines during seismic events, thereby providing a theoretical foundation for the seismic design of buried pipelines.

     

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