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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

双峰寺水库对承德台VP宽频带倾斜仪观测数据的影响

The influence of Shuangfengsi Reservoir on the observation data of VP wide-band inclinometer at Chengde Station

  • 摘要: 承德台VP宽频带倾斜仪自安装以来表现为NS向北向倾斜、EW向西向倾斜的长期趋势,在2021年7月至8月期间,该倾斜仪NS向和EW向均出现加速倾斜变化,倾斜速率约为正常4倍。同期,位于台站东北方约10千米的双峰寺水库完工蓄水,并于2021年8月24日达到最高水位。本文对VP宽频带倾斜仪数据与水库库容数据进行相关性分析,并利用非均匀载荷模型计算该水库蓄水引起的地壳形变量。相关性分析结果表明,VP宽频带倾斜仪数据变化与水库库容变化的相关性较高。模型计算结果得出,水库蓄水致库区地壳最大沉降0.4421 mm,北向倾斜0.1179 mm,东向倾斜0.0882 mm,与VP宽频带倾斜仪观测较为一致。2022年VP宽频带倾斜仪数据变化与水库库容变化相关性亦较高。由此推测,近年承德台VP宽频带倾斜仪年变趋势改变主要由双峰寺水库蓄水引起。本文通过双峰寺水库蓄水与承德台VP宽频带倾斜仪数据的定量计算,排除了地震前兆的可能,为地震预测异常分析考虑非构造因素影响提供了例证。

     

    Abstract: Since its installation, the VP broadband tiltmeter has shown a long-term trend of NS tilting to the north and EW tilting to the west. However, from July to August 2021, both NS and EW tilting of the tiltmeter showed accelerated tilting changes, and the tilting rate was about 4 times that of normal. During the same period, the Shuangfengsi Reservoir, located about 10 km northeast of the station, was filled and reached its highest level on August 24, 2021. In this paper, the correlation between the data of VP wide-band inclinometer and reservoir capacity is analyzed, and then the crustal shape variables caused by impingement of reservoir are calculated using the non-uniform load model. The correlation analysis results show that the variation of VP wideband tiltmeter data has a high correlation with the variation of reservoir capacity. The results of model calculation show that the maximum crustal subsidence caused by reservoir filling is 0.4421 mm, the north tilt is 0.1179 mm and the east tilt is 0.0882 mm, which is consistent with the observation of VP wide-band inclinometer. There is also a high correlation between the change of VP wide-band tiltmeter data and the change of reservoir capacity in 2022. It is inferred that the change of the annual variation trend of the VP broadband tiltmeter in Chengde Station in recent years is mainly caused by the impingement of Shuangfengsi reservoir. Through the quantitative calculation of the ground tilt caused by the storage of Shuangfengsi Reservoir and the data of VP broadband tiltmeter in Chengde Station, this paper eliminates the possibility of earthquake precursor, avoids misjudgment, and provides an example for the comprehensive consideration of non-structural factors in the anomaly analysis of earthquake prediction.

     

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