Abstract:
Since its installation, the VP broadband tiltmeter has shown a long-term trend of NS tilting to the north and EW tilting to the west. However, from July to August 2021, both NS and EW tilting of the tiltmeter showed accelerated tilting changes, and the tilting rate was about 4 times that of normal. During the same period, the Shuangfengsi Reservoir, located about 10 km northeast of the station, was filled and reached its highest level on August 24, 2021. In this paper, the correlation between the data of VP wide-band inclinometer and reservoir capacity is analyzed, and then the crustal shape variables caused by impingement of reservoir are calculated using the non-uniform load model. The correlation analysis results show that the variation of VP wideband tiltmeter data has a high correlation with the variation of reservoir capacity. The results of model calculation show that the maximum crustal subsidence caused by reservoir filling is 0.4421 mm, the north tilt is 0.1179 mm and the east tilt is 0.0882 mm, which is consistent with the observation of VP wide-band inclinometer. There is also a high correlation between the change of VP wide-band tiltmeter data and the change of reservoir capacity in 2022. It is inferred that the change of the annual variation trend of the VP broadband tiltmeter in Chengde Station in recent years is mainly caused by the impingement of Shuangfengsi reservoir. Through the quantitative calculation of the ground tilt caused by the storage of Shuangfengsi Reservoir and the data of VP broadband tiltmeter in Chengde Station, this paper eliminates the possibility of earthquake precursor, avoids misjudgment, and provides an example for the comprehensive consideration of non-structural factors in the anomaly analysis of earthquake prediction.