zhenbo

ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

双峰寺水库对承德台VP宽频带倾斜仪观测数据的影响

Impact of the Shuangfengsi reservoir on VP broadband tiltmeter observations at Chengde station

  • 摘要: 承德台VP宽频带倾斜仪自安装以来表现为NS向北向倾斜、EW向西向倾斜的长期趋势,在2021年7—8月期间,该倾斜仪NS向和EW向均出现加速倾斜变化,倾斜速率约为正常的4倍。同期,位于台站东北方约10 km的双峰寺水库完工蓄水,并于2021年8月24日达到最高水位。本文对VP宽频带倾斜仪数据与水库库容数据进行相关性分析,并利用非均匀载荷模型计算该水库蓄水引起的地壳形变量。相关性分析结果表明,VP宽频带倾斜仪数据变化与水库库容变化的相关性较高。模型计算结果得出,水库蓄水致库区地壳最大沉降0.4421 mm,北向倾斜0.1179 mm,东向倾斜0.0882 mm,与VP宽频带倾斜仪观测较为一致。2022年VP宽频带倾斜仪数据变化与水库库容变化相关性亦较高。由此推测,近年承德台VP宽频带倾斜仪年变趋势改变主要由双峰寺水库蓄水引起。本文通过双峰寺水库蓄水与承德台VP宽频带倾斜仪数据的定量计算,排除了地震前兆的可能,为地震预测异常分析考虑非构造因素影响提供了例证。

     

    Abstract: Since its installation, the VP broadband tiltmeter at Chengde station has exhibited a long-term trend of northward tilt along the north-south (NS) axis and westward tilt along the east-west (EW) axis. However, during July to August 2021, both components showed a marked acceleration in tilting, with rates approximately four times higher than the long-term average. During the same period, the nearby Shuangfengsi reservoir, located about 10 km northeast of the station, was being filled and reached its maximum water level on August 24, 2021. This study analyzes the correlation between the inclinometer data and changes in reservoir capacity and further quantifies the resulting crustal deformation using a non-uniform surface load model. Correlation analysis revealed a strong relationship between variation in the VP broadband tiltmeter data and changes in reservoir capacity. Model calculations indicated that the reservoir filling resulted in a maximum crustal subsidence of 0.4421 mm, with corresponding northward tilt of 0.1179 mm and eastward tilt of 0.0882 mm. These values are consistent with the observations recorded by the VP broadband tiltmeter. A similarly strong correlation was also observed between the tiltmeter data and reservoir capacity changes in 2022. The findings suggest that recent annual variation trends observed by the VP broadband tiltmeter at Chengde station are primarily attributable to loading effects from the Shuangfengsi reservoir. By quantitatively comparing modeled ground tilt induced by reservoir impoundment with the tiltmeter observations, this study effectively rules out tectonic origins such as earthquake precursors. These results help prevent potential misinterpretation of the data and provide a valuable example of how non-tectonic influences should be considered in the anomaly analysis used for earthquake forecasting.

     

/

返回文章
返回