Abstract: The Urad Rear Banner region is located at the intersection of the Alxa Block, Ordos Block, and Yanshan Block. Its seismic activity is influenced by changes in the tectonic stress field and is correlated with the occurrence of moderate-to-strong earthquakes. Since October 2022, the region has experienced a significant increase in small earthquake activity, exceeding background levels. In this study, the selected seismic window is located in the Urad Rear Banner area. The cumulative frequency of earthquakes with a magnitude of M_L 2.0 or greater within 180 days inside this window is used as the window-opening indicator. The target earthquakes are M_S ≥ 5.0 events on the northwestern edge of the Ordos Block, and the R-value is used as the parameter for evaluating prediction effectiveness. By examining the distribution of R-values in the two-dimensional parameter space of prediction window length and threshold, the prediction rules are established based on the highest R-value. The results indicate that the highest R-value is 0.43, with an optimal prediction window length of 200 days and an alarm threshold of 8 events. Under these rules, the frequency-based prediction indicator demonstrates good predictive performance and high reliability.