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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

元谋地震台地下流体观测干扰因素及预报效能分析

Analysis of interference factors and prediction efficiency of fluid observation in Yuanmou Hydration Station

  • 摘要: 选取元谋地震台2008—2024年的地下流体观测数据,采用与正常观测数据对比分析的方法,梳理出4类干扰类型,分别是观测技术系统故障、场地环境干扰、人为因素干扰及其它各种偶然引起的干扰。选取2010年1月1日—2023年7月9日水温和水位日均值数据,2016年5月18日—2023年7月9日气汞日均值数据和2017年12月14日—2023年7月9日气氡日均值数据进行预报效能分析,采用阈值法、速率差分法、趋势转折法及破年变探测法对元谋地震台地下流体观测资料进行预报效能R值计算,结果显示:水温、水位和气氡四种方法计算出的R值均大于0,说明具有预测意义;速率差分法计算出的水温预报效能RR0,说明具有显著预测意义,气汞四种方法计算出的R值均小于0,说明气汞无有效预测意义。

     

    Abstract: The underground fluid observation data of well Dian 02 in Yuanmou hydration station from 2008 to 2024 are selected, and four types of interference are sorted out by comparing with normal observation data, which are observation technical system failure, site environment interference, human factor interference and other accidental interference. The prediction efficiency of the underground fluid observation data of Yuanmou Hydration Station is analyzed. The prediction efficiency R value of all the underground fluid observation data of Yuanmou Hydration Station is calculated by threshold method, rate difference method, trend turning method and annual change detection method. The results show that the R values calculated by the four methods of water temperature, water level and gas radon are all greater than 0, indicating that it has predictive significance. The prediction efficiency of water temperature calculated by the rate difference method is R > R0, indicating that it has significant predictive significance. The R values calculated by the four methods of gas mercury are all less than 0, indicating that gas mercury has no effective predictive significance.

     

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