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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

元谋地震台地下流体观测干扰因素及预报效能分析

Analysis of interference factors and prediction efficiency of underground fluid observations at Yuanmou seismic station

  • 摘要: 选取元谋地震台2008—2024年的地下流体观测数据,采用与正常观测数据对比分析的方法,梳理出4类干扰类型,分别是观测技术系统故障、场地环境干扰、人为因素干扰及其他各种偶然因素引起的干扰。选取2010年1月1日—2023年7月9日水温和水位日均值数据,2016年5月18日—2023年7月9日气汞日均值数据和2017年12月14日—2023年7月9日气氡日均值数据进行预报效能分析,采用阈值法、速率差分法、趋势转折法及破年变探测法对元谋地震台地下流体观测资料进行预报效能R值计算。结果显示:水温、水位和气氡用4种方法计算出的R值均大于0,说明具有预测意义;速率差分法计算出的水温预报效能RR0,说明具有显著预测意义;气汞用4种方法计算出的R值均小于0,说明气汞无有效预测意义。

     

    Abstract: The underground fluid observational data of Dian 02 well at Yuanmou seismic station from 2008 to 2024 were selected, and four types of interference were identified by comparison with normal observational data: technical system failure, site environmental, human factor, and other accidental interference. The prediction efficiency of the underground fluid observational data from Yuanmou seismic station was analyzed. The prediction efficiency R values of all underground fluid observational data of Yuanmou seismic station were calculated using the threshold, rate difference, trend turning, and annual change detection methods. The results showed that the water temperature, water level, and gas radon R values calculated using these four methods were all greater than 0, indicating that they have predictive significance. The prediction efficiency of the water temperature calculated using the rate difference method was R greater than R0, indicating predictive significance. The gaseous mercury R values calculated using the four methods were all less than 0, indicating that gaseous mercury had no effective predictive significance.

     

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