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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

高泛化性模型在郯庐断裂带中南段b值与中强震回溯中的应用

Application of high generalization model in the b-value and medium and strong earthquake backtracking of the central and southern section of the Tanlu fault zone

  • 摘要: b值变化与孕震的指示性历来是震情研判的重要参考指标。基于深度学习技术可以挖掘数据隐含特征的优势,考虑到川滇地区近年地震多发的自然现象和郯庐断裂地震活动性的高关注度,本研究利用中国地震台网地震目录川滇地区地震事件自制数据集,并将 M_\mathrmL 4.5以上的中强震设标签为1, M_\mathrmL 3.0以下的弱震为0,通过时间滑动窗口方法计算川滇地区的格网化b值,将每个地震事例震前5年的区域b值变化与标签做映射,通过卷积神经网络模型进行训练与分类,将训练优化后的模型应用到郯庐断裂中南段的中强震的回溯性检验,验证准确率可达到90%左右,尽管川滇地区和郯庐断裂带中南段及其邻区有不同的地理与构造背景,但基于数据驱动的方法,合理的泛化思想、训练数据集的制作和深度学习模型构建仍有挖掘强震规律的借鉴意义。

     

    Abstract: The indication of b-value change and earthquake preparation has always been an important reference index for earthquake situation research and judgment. Based on the advantage that deep learning technology can mine the implicit characteristics of data, taking into account the natural phenomenon of frequent earthquakes in Sichuan and Yunnan in recent years and the high attention paid to the seismic activity of the Tanlu fault, this study uses the self-made data set of seismic events in Sichuan and Yunnan region from the earthquake catalogue of the China Earthquake Networks Center, and medium and strong earthquakes above M_\mathrmL 4.5 are labeled as 1, weak earthquakes below M_\mathrmL 3.0 are labeled as 0. The grid b-value in Sichuan-Yunnan region is calculated using the time sliding window method, and the b-value changes of each earthquake event in the five years before the earthquake are mapped to the labels. By using convolutional neural network models for training and classification, the optimized model is applied to the retrospective testing of medium and strong earthquakes in the central and southern section of the Tanlu fault zone. The verification accuracy can reach about 90%. Although the Sichuan-Yunnan region and the central and southern section of the Tanlu fault zone and their neighboring areas have different geographical and structural backgrounds, data-driven methods, reasonable generalization ideas, training datasets production, and deep learning model construction still have reference significance for mining strong earthquake laws.

     

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