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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

日本地震预警业务规定和技术系统发展历程及最新进展

The development history and latest progress of Japan’s earthquake early warning business regulations and technical systems

  • 摘要: 日本地震预警业务规定和技术系统近年来依然在不断更新发展。2023年2月1日起,日本地震预警发布内容中正式加入长周期地震动预测信息。2015年以来海底观测网相继纳入预警系统,有效缩短了发生在日本海沟沿岸地震的预警首报发布时间。2018年引入PLUM法,使系统在传统方法失效时也能够作出地震动预报。目前正在重点解决地震动预测过大情况依然时有发生的问题,日本气象厅在2023年底前后引入一体化集成IPF法以降低预测地震动过大比率。当前日本地震预警技术和应用发展中遇到的一些问题,以及设想的未来重点发展方向,也是我国地震预警发展的有益参考。

     

    Abstract: The regulations and technical systems for earthquake early warning in Japan have been continuously updated and developed in recent years. Starting from February 1, 2023, long-term earthquake motion prediction information was officially included in the Japan earthquake warning release. Since 2015, the underwater observation network has been integrated into the early warning system, effectively shortening the time for the first warning of earthquakes occurring along the coast of the Japan Trench. In 2018, the PLUM method was introduced to enable the system to make earthquake motion predictions even when traditional methods fail. At present, efforts are focused on solving the problem of frequent occurrence of excessive earthquake motion prediction. The Japan Meteorological Agency has introduced the integrated IPF method by the end of 2023 to reduce the rate of excessive earthquake motion prediction. The problems encountered in the current development of earthquake early warning technology and applications in Japan, as well as the envisioned future key development directions, provide useful references for the development of earthquake early warning in China.

     

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