Characteristic analysis and forecasting effectiveness of Aksu fault hydrogen anomalies for moderate-strong earthquakes
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摘要: 2013年11月—2021年12月阿克苏断层氢观测点周边300 km范围内，先后发生了多次中强地震，断层氢浓度值出现了8次不同程度的短临前兆异常。通过对异常特征的分析总结，将已取得的震例划分为波动型、突升型和突升恢复型3种不同类型。利用R值评分法对阿克苏断层氢观测进行预报效能评价，阿克苏断层氢对周边300 km范围内5级以上地震R值评分为0.462，预报效能较好。Abstract: There were multiple moderate-strong earthquakes occurred successively within an area of 300 km around the Aksu fault hydrogen observation point during the period from November 2013 to December 2021, for which 8 short-term precursory anomalies of fault hydrogen concentrations appeared in different degrees change. By analyzing and summarizing the abnormal characteristics, the obtained earthquake cases are divided into three different types: fluctuation type, sudden rise type and sudden rise recovery type. Using the scoring method of R value to evaluate the forecasting effectiveness of the Aksu fault hydrogen observation, R value score of 0.462 has been obtained for earthquakes with magnitude above 5 within the range of 300 km, and the forecasting effectiveness is good.
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Key words:
- fault hydrogen /
- anomaly analysis /
- forecasting effectiveness /
- R value score
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图 1 阿克苏断层氢观测点概况图
（a）观测点构造；（b）观测装置结构
Figure 1. Overview of the fault hydrogen observation point in Aksu
(a) Geological structure of observation point；(b) Observation device structure
图 6 异常类型与震级、震中距和异常幅度之间的关系
Figure 6. Relationship between anomaly type and magnitude, epicenter distance and anomaly amplitude
表 1 阿克苏断层氢震例汇总
Table 1. Summary of fault hydrogen seismic cases in Aksu
序号 异常时间 断层氢浓度值异常特征 异常幅度/ppm 对应地震 震中距/km 1 2013-11-27—12-04 震前3天持续快速上升变化，之后发生地震，震后波动上升至最高值后转为波动下降 2.00 2013-12-01 柯坪MS5.3 135 2 2014-06-20—07-26 震前20天波动明显增大，波动过程中发生地震，震后17天波动幅度明显减小 1.69 2014-07-09 麦盖提MS5.1 260 3 2016-07-28—08-16 震前16天波动增大，地震发生3天后转为波动下降变化，波动幅度减小 1.05 2016-08-13 阿合奇MS4.7 171 4 2017-08-30—11-30 震前17天快速上升，持续5天后转为波动下降，上升幅度达背景值的2.8倍，在恢复背景值的过程中发生地震 3.30 2017-09-16 库车MS5.7 291 5 2018-09-14—11-04 震前51天波动增大，震后转为波动下降变化，波动幅度减小 1.20 2018-11-04 阿图什MS5.1 238 6 2019-08-26—09-05 震前62天快速上升，快速上升持续19小时，之后转为下降变化，11天后恢复至背景值，恢复背景值后51天发生地震 2.24 2019-10-27 乌什MS5.0 114 7 2019-11-29—12-02 震前52天快速上升，快速上升变化持续2天，达到最高值后转为下降，3天即恢复至背景值，恢复背景值后47天发生地震 1.41 2020-01-16 库车MS5.6
2020-01-19 伽师MS6.4286
2898 2020-04-12—04-17 震前27天快速上升，快速上升变化持续3天，达到最高值后3天恢复至背景值，地震发生于浓度值恢复至背景值后的第21天 2.20 2020-05-09 柯坪MS5.2 126 
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表 2 阿克苏断层氢R值计算
Table 2. Fault hydrogen R value calculation in Aksu
序号 地震 对应
地震情况R值评分结果 日期 地点 MS 震中距/km 1 2013-12-01 柯坪县 5.3 135 对应
${ {R} } = \dfrac{8}{ {14} } - \dfrac{ {324} }{ {2\;975} } = 0.462$
${{R_0} } = 0.281$2 2014-07-09 麦盖提县 5.1 260 对应 3 2014-11-14 吉尔吉斯斯坦 5.5 270 漏报 4 2015-01-10 阿图什市 5.0 269 漏报 5 2017-09-16 库车县 5.7 291 对应 6 2018-11-04 阿图什市 5.1 238 对应 7 2019-10-27 乌什县 5.0 114 对应 8 2020-01-16 库车市 5.6 286 对应 9 2020-01-19 伽师县 6.4 289 对应 10 2020-02-15 吉尔吉斯斯坦 5.0 108 漏报 11 2020-02-21 伽师县 5.1 268 漏报 12 2020-03-23 拜城县 5.0 104 漏报 13 2020-05-09 柯坪县 5.2 126 对应 14 2021-03-24 拜城县 5.4 101 漏报
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