zhenbo

ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

刘海洋, 徐衍刚, 祖力卡尔•艾则孜, 蒋志英. 阿克苏断层氢中强震异常特征分析及预报效能评价 [J]. 地震科学进展, 2023, (3): 120-126. doi: 10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2022-111" target="_blank" class="mainColor"> 10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2022-111.
引用本文: 刘海洋, 徐衍刚, 祖力卡尔•艾则孜, 蒋志英. 阿克苏断层氢中强震异常特征分析及预报效能评价 [J]. 地震科学进展, 2023, (3): 120-126. doi: 10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2022-111" target="_blank" class="mainColor"> 10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2022-111.
Liu Haiyang, Xu Yangang, Zulikaer Aizezi, Jiang Zhiying. Characteristic analysis and forecasting effectiveness of Aksu fault hydrogen anomalies for moderate-strong earthquakes [J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2023, (3): 120-126. doi: 10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2022-111" target="_blank" class="mainColor"> 10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2022-111.
Citation: Liu Haiyang, Xu Yangang, Zulikaer Aizezi, Jiang Zhiying. Characteristic analysis and forecasting effectiveness of Aksu fault hydrogen anomalies for moderate-strong earthquakes [J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2023, (3): 120-126. doi: 10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2022-111" target="_blank" class="mainColor"> 10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2022-111.

阿克苏断层氢中强震异常特征分析及预报效能评价

Characteristic analysis and forecasting effectiveness of Aksu fault hydrogen anomalies for moderate-strong earthquakes

  • 摘要: 2013年11月—2021年12月阿克苏断层氢观测点周边300 km范围内,先后发生了多次中强地震,断层氢浓度值出现了8次不同程度的短临前兆异常。通过对异常特征的分析总结,将已取得的震例划分为波动型、突升型和突升恢复型3种不同类型。利用R值评分法对阿克苏断层氢观测进行预报效能评价,阿克苏断层氢对周边300 km范围内5级以上地震R值评分为0.462,预报效能较好。

     

    Abstract: There were multiple moderate-strong earthquakes occurred successively within an area of 300 km around the Aksu fault hydrogen observation point during the period from November 2013 to December 2021, for which 8 short-term precursory anomalies of fault hydrogen concentrations appeared in different degrees change. By analyzing and summarizing the abnormal characteristics, the obtained earthquake cases are divided into three different types: fluctuation type, sudden rise type and sudden rise recovery type. Using the scoring method of R value to evaluate the forecasting effectiveness of the Aksu fault hydrogen observation, R value score of 0.462 has been obtained for earthquakes with magnitude above 5 within the range of 300 km, and the forecasting effectiveness is good.

     

/

返回文章
返回