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高继宗. 3次大理历史地震的预测、预报和预防[J]. 地震科学进展 , 2023, (3): 133-138. DOI: 10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2021-104
引用本文: 高继宗. 3次大理历史地震的预测、预报和预防[J]. 地震科学进展 , 2023, (3): 133-138. DOI: 10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2021-104
Gao Jizong. Forecast,prediction and prevention of three historical earthquakes in Dali[J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2023, (3): 133-138. DOI: 10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2021-104
Citation: Gao Jizong. Forecast,prediction and prevention of three historical earthquakes in Dali[J]. Progress in Earthquake Sciences, 2023, (3): 133-138. DOI: 10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2021-104

3次大理历史地震的预测、预报和预防

Forecast,prediction and prevention of three historical earthquakes in Dali

  • 摘要: 《大理古佚书钞》收编的《三迤随笔》 《淮城夜语》 《叶榆稗史》等笔记作品中,分别记述了法端、光明、杨景浩等人,依据多种宏观异常现象,预测、预报和预防了779年、1111年、1341年的大理地震。宏观前兆现象较多的地震,是可以预测、预报和预防的,但需要加强宏观前兆机理的探索研究,揭示宏观前兆现象的物理本质,研发能够有效捕捉临震宏观前兆现象的高灵敏度、高分辨率、高精度的地震前兆监测仪器,精心设计地震前兆监测网格节点。通过网络,将连续监测到的各种信号,实时发送到地震监测中心,使用高速的计算机网络和云平台,进行综合分析研究,提取可靠的地震前兆信息,才有望对宏观前兆现象较多的地震,实现预测、预报和预防。

     

    Abstract: Note-taking articles, Sanyi Sketch, Huaicheng Night Talk, and Yeyu Unofficial History, are contained in the book of Some Lost Ancient Books in Dali. They describe that Mr. Fa Duan, Mr. Guang Ming and Mr. Yang Jinghao had forecasted, predicted and prevented earthquakes in Dali in the year of 779, 1111 and 1341, just according to some macroscopic anomalies. The earthquake with more macroscopic precursor phenomena can be forecasted, predicted and prevented. However, it is necessary to strengthen the research on the mechanism of macro-precursors, to reveal the physical essence of macroscopic precursor phenomena, to produce a high-sensitivity, high-resolution and high-precision earthquake precursor monitoring instrument which can effectively catch the macroscopic precursor phenomena before earthquakes, to carefully design and place on the monitoring grid points. Then we can achieve real-time the continuously monitored various signals which are sented through the network to the seismic monitoring center, analyse the signals by high-speed computer networks and cloud platforms, and collect reliable earthquake precursor information. Finally, the earthquake forecast, prediction and prevention is expected to achieve with the modern seismic monitoring network.

     

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