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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

帛琉群岛(Palau)地区地震危险性预测

Earthquake prediction for Palau Islands

  • 摘要: 在地震孕育过程中,由于构造应力的作用,使震源系统的应力逐渐增强。当应力增强到一定程度时,震源系统将会变得极不稳定,地震孕育进入中短期阶段。基于这个认识,本文利用视应力研究了帛琉群岛地区地壳构造应力的变化,同时还分析了地震活动的地球自转相关性。得到的结果表明在未来2—3年内,这个地区具有发生MS≥8.0地震的危险性。

     

    Abstract: In the process of earthquake preparation, stress in the focal area could increase with tectonic stress. When the stress increases to a certain level, the focal area will become unstable. On the basis of this view point, the variations of crustal tectonic stress in Palau Islands area were investigated by using apparent stress in this paper. Meanwhile, the correlation of seismic activity with earth’s rotation was examined. The results indicate that there could be a risk of MS8.0 occurring in this area in the next two to three years.

     

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