Abstract:
Induced seismicity associated with fluid injection and production operations—including shale gas hydraulic fracturing, enhanced geothermal system development, deep-well wastewater injection, and CO
2geological storage—has become a critical issue constraining the safe implementation of such engineering activities. Establishing a scientific geological indicator system for the preliminary screening of induced seismicity risk at the project planning stage is of great significance for identifying site risks, optimizing well placement, and reducing subsequent operational risks. Focusing on the geological (hazard potential) dimension of preliminary screening, this paper systematically extracts the geology-related indicators adopted in the screening stage of ten representative international risk management frameworks for induced seismicity, and analyzes issues concerning the coverage of geological indicators, quantitative grading criteria, and the prioritization of indicators. The mechanistic evidence regarding the influence of five categories of geological factors—lithology, faults, reservoirs, basement characteristics, and special strata—on induced seismicity is then systematically reviewed. On this basis, fifteen geological indicators are reconstructed into two decision-function categories, namely screening-out and dominant indicators, with grading criteria and scoring methods specified for each indicator, and a geological evaluation procedure featuring "screening-out first, graded scoring, and comprehensive integration" is established. The proposed indicator system and evaluation procedure can serve as the geological input module for the hazard potential dimension in the comprehensive preliminary screening assessment of induced seismicity risk associated with fluid injection and production activities; in particular, the introduction of indicators such as detachment layers and reef bodies fills the gap of existing frameworks in addressing special strata.