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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

基于单台波形的2026年日本熊本 MW6.8地震远场地震信息服务处理结果

Far-field earthquake information from single-station waveforms: The 2026 MW6.8 Kumamoto earthquake

  • 摘要: 北京时间2026年7月28日15时27分15.512秒(UTC 07时27分15.512秒),日本熊本地区发生MW6.8地震。本文介绍构建的远场大震信息快报系统使用全球地震台网(Global Seismographic Network,GSN)IU.MAJO台站处理结果,分析系统基于DiTing地震大模型开展连续波形处理、P波识别、初步参数输出和服务端MQTT推送的过程。IU.MAJO台站距USGS目录震中约808.7 km,震中方位角为55.9°,系统识别的P波初动到时为UTC 07时29分03.595秒,距USGS目录发震时刻108.1 s,准确识别到了P波初动。系统通过P波震相估计震级为M6.86,与USGS MW6.8的数值差为0.06。系统日志记录的服务端MQTT推送于P波拾取后57.9 s、发震后166.0 s完成。系统通过单台对震源参数进行了估计,估计发震时刻比目录晚80.1 s,输出位置与目录震中相距约982.1 km,表明在远震中距情况下单台确定的震源参数仍有较大误差。本次结果显示,通过单台可以开展地震识别和地震震级估计,并及时发送地震信息。该系统不同于利用几公里至几十公里以内预警台站开展的常规地震预警系统,主要利用几十至上百公里的台站开展海域或网外大震的快速识别和判别,为几百至上千公里区域提供地震信息快报和预警。该事例仅为限定数据条件下的一次运行结果,系统将持续运行开展可行性和准确性测试。

     

    Abstract: On July 28, 2026, at 15:27:15.512 Beijing Time (07:27:15.512 UTC), an MW6.8 earthquake occurred in the Kumamoto region of Japan. This study reviewed one operational run of a prototype system using three-component waveforms from Global Seismographic Network station IU.MAJO. The deployed DiTing model component processed the continuous waveform stream, identified the P-wave onset, produced preliminary event parameters, and recorded the completion of the server-side MQTT push. IU.MAJO is located approximately 808.7 km from the USGS catalog epicenter, with a forward azimuth of 55.9° from the epicenter to the station. The system P-wave first-arrival pick at 07:29:03.595 UTC occurred 108.1 s after the cataloged origin time and 1.9 s after the theoretical P-wave first arrival predicted by iasp91; This difference arises from the theoretical arrival rather than an error relative to the manual pick. The estimated system magnitude was M6.86, a numerical difference of 0.06 from the MW6.8 provided by the USGS. The server-side MQTT push was completed 57.9 s after the P-wave pick and 166.0 s after the catalog origin time. The estimated origin time was 80.1 s later than the observed, and the reported location was approximately 982.1 km from the catalog epicenter, demonstrating substantial limitations in the preliminary single-station time and location estimates. However, the results only document one run for a specific event, station, and data condition. They do not constitute a statistical validation of the model performance or conventional near-source public earthquake early warning systems.

     

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