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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

面向地质灾害及其复合链生风险防控的国家级科研平台建设逻辑与科技支撑体系

Construction Logic and Scientific–Technological Support System of a National Research Platform for Risk Prevention and Control of Geohazards and Their Compound and Cascading Risks

  • 摘要: 我国地质灾害具有隐患数量多、分布范围广、触发因素复杂、链生放大效应显著和应急处置难度高等特点。随着气候变化背景下极端降雨多发频发、强震活动持续存在以及重大工程扰动不断增强,滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、地面塌陷、地裂缝和地面沉降等单体地质灾害风险持续存在,并呈现多灾种耦合、灾害链传导和系统性风险放大等新的演化特征。与此同时,卫星遥感、InSAR、无人机、北斗/GNSS、分布式光纤、微震监测、物联网、人工智能、数字孪生和大模型等新技术快速发展,为地质灾害防治从“经验判断、点状防控、灾后处置”转向“数据驱动、机理约束、动态预警、智能应急和综合治理”提供了新的技术基础。本文以应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院地质灾害研究中心建设为对象,结合地质灾害防治领域已有研究基础和近年来国内外技术发展趋势,分析新时期地质灾害及其复合链生风险防控的科技需求、学科组织逻辑和技术体系演进方向,提出“数据平台—机理认知—风险评价—监测预警—情景推演—应急决策—政策标准”一体化科技支撑框架。研究认为,面向重大单体地质灾害与复合链生风险防控,地质灾害研究中心应建设成为任务牵引型、数据支撑型、机理创新型、技术集成型和应急实战型科研组织,重点突破地质灾害多源数据治理、灾害链动力学机理、物理—数据融合的灾害预测与风险评估模型、“天—空—地—井”一体化智能监测与预警、数字孪生应急推演等关键方向,推动形成科技研究、业务支撑、社会服务和人才培养四位一体的发展格局,为提升我国地质灾害综合防治和应急管理现代化能力提供持续科技支撑。

     

    Abstract: Geohazards in China are characterized by a large number of potential hazard sites, wide spatial distribution, complex triggering conditions, significant cascading amplification effects, and substantial challenges for emergency response. Against the background of increasingly frequent extreme rainfall events associated with climate change, persistent strong earthquake activity, and growing disturbances from major engineering projects, risks associated with individual geohazards, including landslides, collapses, debris flows, ground collapse, ground fissures, and land subsidence, remain prominent, while multi-hazard coupling, cascading hazard transmission, and systemic risk amplification have become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, rapid advances in satellite remote sensing, InSAR, unmanned aerial vehicles, BeiDou/GNSS, distributed fiber-optic sensing, microseismic monitoring, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, digital twins, and large language models provide a new technological foundation for transforming geohazard prevention and control from experience-based judgment, site-specific management, and post-disaster response toward data-driven analysis, mechanism-constrained modeling, dynamic early warning, intelligent emergency response, and integrated risk governance. Taking the development of the Geohazards Research Center of the National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China, as an example, this paper analyzes the scientific and technological demands, disciplinary organization logic, and evolution of technical systems for the prevention and control of geohazards and their compound and cascading risks in the new era. An integrated scientific and technological support framework is proposed, comprising a data platform, mechanism understanding, risk assessment, monitoring and early warning, scenario simulation, emergency decision-making, and policies and standards. The results suggest that, to strengthen the prevention and control of major individual geohazards and compound and cascading risks, the Geohazards Research Center should be developed into a mission-driven, data-supported, mechanism-innovation-oriented, technology-integrated, and emergency-response-ready research organization. Priority should be given to breakthroughs in multi-source geohazard data governance, mechanisms of individual geohazards and cascading processes, physics–data fusion models for hazard prediction and risk assessment, integrated space–air–ground–borehole intelligent monitoring and early warning, and digital-twin-based emergency scenario simulation. These efforts will promote an integrated development framework encompassing scientific research, operational support, public service, and talent cultivation, thereby providing sustained scientific and technological support for enhancing China’s comprehensive geohazard prevention and control capabilities and modernizing emergency management.

     

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