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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

流体注采类工业活动诱发地震风险管理框架:国际演进、结构内核与适应性重构

Risk Management Framework for Induced Seismicity Associated with Fluid Injection and Production Activities: International Evolution,Structural Core and Adaptive Reconstruction

  • 摘要: 流体注入、采出及注采交替等地下工程活动可通过扰动孔隙压力、有效应力与断层稳定性,诱发或调制地震活动,其风险具有多机制耦合、全周期演化与社会嵌入性强等特征。国际社会已在实践中逐步形成以风险管理框架为核心的一套治理模式,涵盖从项目前期选址、详细评估、实时监测到运营控制与风险沟通的全过程。然而,现有研究多聚焦于单个框架介绍或技术指标罗列,缺乏对框架共性结构、演进逻辑与内在张力的系统性解构。本文基于对11个代表性国际诱发地震风险管理框架的结构化编码与比较分析,提出“生命周期阶段—功能模块—治理机制”三维分析矩阵,系统梳理框架从技术控制、风险治理到动态自适应的演进路径,提炼出“四阶段—六模块—反馈闭环”的通用结构内核。研究发现,当前框架普遍面临技术可信性与社会可接受性、静态法规稳定性与动态风险演化、通用性与场景适配性、注入主导范式与注采全周期覆盖等四类结构性张力;尤其在采出与注采交替场景下,风险评估的物理基础与制度响应仍显薄弱,导致长期生产阶段风险易被低估。基于此,本文进一步提出面向中国复杂工程场景的适应性重构路径,强调框架应遵循“物理机制可追溯、阶段边界清晰、等级触发明确、动态更新可执行、社会治理可嵌入”五项设计原则。本文将前期研究提出的初步筛查指标体系明确嵌入全周期框架的入口模块,重点揭示其与后续详细评价、监测控制、风险沟通及反馈复评的结构性衔接机制,为构建我国统一、科学、可操作的诱发地震风险管理框架提供理论支撑与方法论参照。

     

    Abstract: Subsurface engineering activities involving fluid injection, fluid production, and alternating injection–production operations may induce or modulate seismicity by perturbing pore pressure, effective stress, and fault stability. The associated seismic risk is characterized by coupled physical mechanisms, life-cycle evolution, and strong social embeddedness. In international practice, a governance model centered on risk management frameworks has gradually emerged, covering the whole process from early-stage site selection, detailed risk assessment, and real-time monitoring to operational control and risk communication. However, existing studies have mostly focused on the description of individual frameworks or the enumeration of technical indicators, while systematic analyses of the common structural features, evolutionary logic, and inherent tensions of these frameworks remain limited. Based on structured coding and comparative analysis of 11 representative international risk management frameworks for induced seismicity, this study proposes a three-dimensional analytical matrix consisting of “life-cycle stages—functional modules—governance mechanisms”. The evolution of these frameworks is systematically examined from technical control, through risk governance, to dynamic adaptation, and a generic structural core of “four stages—six modules—feedback loop” is further extracted. The results show that current frameworks generally face four types of structural tension: the coupling imbalance between technical credibility and social acceptability, the mismatch between the stability of regulatory arrangements and the dynamic evolution of seismic risk, the trade-off between general applicability and scenario-specific adaptation, and the conflict between an injection-dominated paradigm and full-cycle coverage of injection–production processes. These limitations are particularly evident in fluid production and alternating injection–production scenarios, where the physical basis of risk assessment and the corresponding institutional responses remain relatively weak, potentially leading to underestimation of risks during long-term production stages. On this basis, an adaptive reconstruction pathway is proposed for complex engineering settings in China. The framework is suggested to follow five design principles: traceability to physical mechanisms, clear boundaries between life-cycle stages, explicit risk-level triggering criteria, executable dynamic updating, and embedded social governance. In addition, the preliminary screening indicator system developed in previous work is explicitly incorporated as the entry module of the full life-cycle framework. Its structural linkage with subsequent detailed assessment, monitoring and control, risk communication, and feedback reassessment is clarified. This study provides theoretical support and methodological reference for developing a unified, scientifically grounded, and operationally feasible risk management framework for induced seismicity in China.

     

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