Abstract:
Subsurface engineering activities involving fluid injection, fluid production, and alternating injection–production operations may induce or modulate seismicity by perturbing pore pressure, effective stress, and fault stability. The associated seismic risk is characterized by coupled physical mechanisms, life-cycle evolution, and strong social embeddedness. In international practice, a governance model centered on risk management frameworks has gradually emerged, covering the whole process from early-stage site selection, detailed risk assessment, and real-time monitoring to operational control and risk communication. However, existing studies have mostly focused on the description of individual frameworks or the enumeration of technical indicators, while systematic analyses of the common structural features, evolutionary logic, and inherent tensions of these frameworks remain limited. Based on structured coding and comparative analysis of 11 representative international risk management frameworks for induced seismicity, this study proposes a three-dimensional analytical matrix consisting of “life-cycle stages—functional modules—governance mechanisms”. The evolution of these frameworks is systematically examined from technical control, through risk governance, to dynamic adaptation, and a generic structural core of “four stages—six modules—feedback loop” is further extracted. The results show that current frameworks generally face four types of structural tension: the coupling imbalance between technical credibility and social acceptability, the mismatch between the stability of regulatory arrangements and the dynamic evolution of seismic risk, the trade-off between general applicability and scenario-specific adaptation, and the conflict between an injection-dominated paradigm and full-cycle coverage of injection–production processes. These limitations are particularly evident in fluid production and alternating injection–production scenarios, where the physical basis of risk assessment and the corresponding institutional responses remain relatively weak, potentially leading to underestimation of risks during long-term production stages. On this basis, an adaptive reconstruction pathway is proposed for complex engineering settings in China. The framework is suggested to follow five design principles: traceability to physical mechanisms, clear boundaries between life-cycle stages, explicit risk-level triggering criteria, executable dynamic updating, and embedded social governance. In addition, the preliminary screening indicator system developed in previous work is explicitly incorporated as the entry module of the full life-cycle framework. Its structural linkage with subsequent detailed assessment, monitoring and control, risk communication, and feedback reassessment is clarified. This study provides theoretical support and methodological reference for developing a unified, scientifically grounded, and operationally feasible risk management framework for induced seismicity in China.