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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

基于Agent的地震损失智能评估框架以2026年马鲁古海峡Mw7.4地震为例

An Agent-Based Intelligent Earthquake Loss Assessment Framework: A Case Study of the 2026 Mw 7.4 Maluku Strait Earthquake

  • 摘要: 地震灾害损失的快速、精准评估是灾后应急救援与决策部署的重要依据。传统损失评估流程通常依赖人工收集震源、地震动、人口与建筑暴露等宏观统计数据,存在多源异构数据融合困难、空间分辨率不足和评估时效性受限等问题。面向震后应急场景,本文构建了一种基于大语言模型Agent调度的地震损失快速评估工作流。该工作流并不改变既有地震动预测、暴露度建模和结构易损性计算模型,而是通过任务拆解、数据检索、参数配置、模型调用和结果汇总的自动化衔接,提高多源数据处理和损失计算的一致性、可追溯性与可重复性。框架整合地形、场地Vs30、人口和建筑资产暴露等空间数据,采用GEM建筑暴露、OpenQuake易损性曲线以及基于Beta边缘分布与Gaussian Copula的空间相关损失采样方法,对建筑损伤和损失的不确定性进行传播。本文以2026年4月印尼马鲁古海峡Mw7.4级地震为案例进行实证分析,评估范围限定为地震动直接造成的住宅建筑结构损失及建筑结构破坏致死风险,不包括海啸、滑坡、火灾、基础设施和营业中断损失。结果表明,该框架能够自动完成从震源参数读取到经济损失与人员伤亡概率分布输出的端到端测算;住宅建筑结构损失期望约为362.82万美元,死亡人数分布的众数为0人,且死亡人数极大概率低于5人。与USGS PAGER及公开震害信息相比,经济损失和伤亡量级基本一致,采用同区域历史事件进行验证后精度良好。本研究为Agent辅助地震损失快速评估提供了可复用的流程化技术路径。

     

    Abstract: Rapid and accurate assessment of earthquake losses provides an important basis for post-earthquake emergency response and decision-making. Conventional loss assessment workflows generally rely on the manual collection and processing of data on seismic source parameters, ground motion, population, and building exposure. Such workflows face difficulties in integrating heterogeneous data from multiple sources, often provide insufficient spatial resolution, and may not meet time-critical assessment requirements. To support post-earthquake emergency response, this study develops a rapid earthquake loss assessment workflow orchestrated by a large language model (LLM) agent. The workflow does not alter existing models for ground-motion prediction, exposure modeling, or structural fragility analysis. Instead, it automates the links among task decomposition, data retrieval, parameter configuration, model invocation, and result aggregation, thereby improving the consistency, traceability, and reproducibility of multisource data processing and loss estimation. The framework integrates spatial data on topography, site Vs30, population, and building asset exposure. It uses GEM building exposure data, OpenQuake fragility curves, and a spatially correlated loss sampling method based on beta marginal distributions and a Gaussian copula to propagate uncertainty in building damage and loss estimates. The April 2026 Mw 7.4 Molucca Sea earthquake in Indonesia is used as a case study. The assessment is limited to direct structural losses to residential buildings caused by ground shaking and the risk of fatalities resulting from structural damage. It excludes impacts from tsunamis, landslides, and fires, as well as infrastructure losses and business interruption losses. The results show that the framework can automatically complete the entire assessment process, from reading seismic source parameters to generating probability distributions of economic loss and the number of fatalities. The expected direct structural loss to residential buildings is approximately USD 3.6282 million. The mode of the fatality distribution is zero, and the number of fatalities is highly likely to remain below five. Compared with USGS PAGER estimates and publicly available earthquake damage reports, the estimated economic loss and fatality levels are broadly of the same order of magnitude. Validation against historical events in the same region also shows good agreement. This study provides a reusable, workflow-based technical approach for rapid earthquake loss assessment assisted by a large language model agent.

     

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