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ISSN 2096-7780 CN 10-1665/P

基于机器学习方法的同震滑坡易发性评价-以2017年林芝地震为例

Assessment of co-seismic landslide susceptibility using machine learning: A case study of the 2017 Nyingchi earthquake

  • 摘要: 2017年11月18日,中国西藏自治区林芝市发生MS6.9地震,震中位于藏东南喜马拉雅东段的雅鲁藏布大峡谷区域,并且触发了上千处滑坡,这些滑坡的易发性特征目前尚未得到详尽评估。本研究以上述灾害事件为背景,同时采用随机森林、支持向量机、逻辑回归和神经网络四种机器学习模型,基于GIS平台开展同震滑坡的易发性评价,并通过网格搜索法进行超参数优化以提升模型性能。最后,基于ROC曲线和多种统计指标,对4种模型的评价结果进行精度检验和对比分析,并生成高可靠度的同震滑坡易发性分布图。结果表明,高易发与极高易发区多集中在陡峭地形和发震断层沿线的山谷地带,以及震中与河流附近。所有模型均展现出优异的判别性能,其中随机森林模型的AUC值最高,达0.92,支持向量机模型次之,逻辑回归模型的AUC值最低,为0.86。综合对比分析结果显示,随机森林与支持向量机模型在同震滑坡易发性预测中表现最佳,两种模型的AUC值均大于0.9,且基于混淆矩阵的各项评估指标均大于0.81,其生成的易发性分布图可为区域同震滑坡风险防控与灾害治理提供科学的参考依据。

     

    Abstract: On November 18, 2017, an MS 6.9 earthquake struck Nyingchi, Tibet Autonomous Region, China. The epicenter was located in the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon region in the eastern Himalayas of southeastern Tibet, triggering thousands of landslides. However, the susceptibility characteristics of these co-seismic landslides have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Using this earthquake event as a case study, this study employed four machine learning models—Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), and Neural Network (NN)—to assess co-seismic landslide susceptibility on a GIS platform. Hyperparameters were optimized using the grid search method to improve model performance. The models were then evaluated and compared using ROC curves, AUC values, and multiple statistical metrics, and highly reliable co-seismic landslide susceptibility maps were generated. The results show that areas with high and very high susceptibility are mainly concentrated in steep valleys, along the seismogenic fault, and in areas near the epicenter and river channels. All four models exhibited strong predictive capability. Among them, the Random Forest model achieved the highest AUC value (0.92), followed by the Support Vector Machine model, whereas the Logistic Regression model yielded the lowest AUC value (0.86). Comparative analysis further indicates that the Random Forest and Support Vector Machine models performed best in predicting co-seismic landslide susceptibility. The susceptibility maps generated by these two models provide scientific support for regional co-seismic landslide risk prevention and hazard mitigation.

     

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